Appears Bitcoin is moving back up to the top of a massive bull flag wedge which originated at the peak at the end of 2017:
Analyst Who Predicted $6.4k Bitcoin Bottom: Price Will Hit $11k Before Pullback
That wedge bull flag is projecting a price rise to between $28,444 to $74,960!
Nick Chong tweeted:
“Real” Bitcoin golden crosses led to rallies of 20,500%, 6,750%, and 150%.
If history rhymes, BTC could do extremely well in the coming years.
Here’s my charts updated with recent price action. I originally posted these charts 29 days ago. Note how the Bitcoin price has been nearly precisely tracking the price line I had drawn on these charts 29 days ago!
So the top of the bearish wedge which may act initially as resistance could be reached between ~$11,400 to $11,900 perhaps by February 17 to 20.
Also there’s a rising, bearish wedge on the Bitcoin chart, which portends a peak and correction is near.
Note as always on my logarithmically-scaled charts, the curved lines are straight on the linearly-scaled price axis (or vice versa if I’m displaying the linearly-scaled chart).
As of today Bitcoin achieved the price prediction I emailed (and then later posted) 2 weeks ago:
Litecoin will within days likely make a lurch upward to
0.0085BTC to~$90as BTC moves to~$10.5k.
As of writing this, there’s a slight pullback to the $10,100 level, perhaps before lurching higher to the said targets, but…
Note @masterluc — who amazingly correctly predicted the December 2019 ~$6k low a year or more before it occurred — has often failed with his shorter-term predictions. And his recent updates appears it will be another incorrect prediction because in my opinion/analysis he has drawn the bottom of the wedge too low (by not intersecting the December 2018 $3k low, which is marked “a” on his chart):
I’m surprised he would (intentionally? deep state propagandist?) make that mistake because the line which correctly intersects the $3k low has intersections with the lows going back several years and is a line that I think he has himself noted in the past. That’s one of the reasons why I’m confident he drew it incorrectly.
Note @masterluc admits a move to above $11k will invalidate his thesis cited above. And he has a reasonable point that the overhead resistance for the top of the bullish wedge can be drawn lower than $11.5k or even lower than $11k.
And I can find evidence that @masterluc’s thesis for a correction may be correct — excepting as already stated in my opinion/analysis he drew the bottom of the wedge incorrectly and thus he exaggerates the severity of his posited correction and the duration for a potential move to the bottom of the wedge.
The LTC/BTC ratio chart is indicating that the current juncture is a potentially a repeating fractal pattern that corresponds to February 22, 2019:
In that case, Bitcoin may be poised to decline back to the correctly drawn wedge bottom as it did in March 2019 perhaps before rising above $11k. Note on the Bitstamp chart below there is also a repeating double-top pattern in 2019 and 2020:
Note the annotated rising, bearish wedge on the Bitcoin chart above, which portends a peak and correction is near.
After writing the above, I read that this posited double-top has been noted by another analyst in Top Analyst: BTC’s Current Resistance Could Spark a Move to $7,800 :
Yet in terms of overall timing of the cup and handle pattern, the current juncture also corresponds to April/May 2019, which is important for considering the duration of any dip back to the bottom of said bullish wedge. The current cup seems to be ~75% of the duration of the prior 2019 cup.
Roughly looks like after peaking $10.5k to $11.5k then a decline into late February or start of March to between $8.4k to $8.8k at roughly the 100 or 200 DMA, although bear in mind the confluence $9,550 zone mentioned below — which might serve as support on the downside.
And the ~1.25X vertical acceleration of this cup compared to the one in 2019, is portending a spike to between $13.8k and $15.3k probably in early to mid-March.
The repeating fractal pattern portends another spike to ~$22k later in April. And then in the middle of May a blow-off peak of ~$35k although the spikes could be progressively higher because acceleration is a non-linear projection.
$9,550 Market Inflection Zone
Filb Filb — who alike @masterluc also predicted both the aforementioned $3k and $6k lows — also projects ~$11,500 to $11,700 based on market inflection zones with $9,550 being a critical price level for a catapult higher (and possibly as support for my posited flash crash scenario to below $9k and note also the severe flash crash in April 2019 which was due to some exchange hack if I remember correctly).
Bitcoin Preparing For 15% Jump From Here: Here’s Why
Even others are finally starting to note the fractal pattern (as it unfolds that) I’ve been presciently blogging for many months (before it happened!):
Fractal: Bitcoin May Soon Go Near-Vertical, Ripping Past $10,000
Except the charts above correlate the current juncture to April 2019 instead of my posited correlation to February 2019.
I think they’re highly underestimating the extent of the parabolic move ahead. Another example is Eerie Accurate Analyst Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 doesn’t expect a new ATM above $20k until 2021.
Haha, I told everyone in my blogs but I’m widely ignored, lol: Analysts Say Crypto Market Yet to Believe in Bull Run, Expect Further Gains:
Notable cryptocurrency observers claim that the Bitcoin market is still in disbelief at the current price rally. This, for them, is a sign that prices of crypto assets will head a lot higher during this market cycle.
C.f. also my other prior blogs:
- Legacy Bitcoin to radically outperform gold
- Bitcoin Preparing to Rocket Launch?
- Bitcoin’s Whiplash Bear Trap
- Bitcoin to $80,000 before May 2020 and $1 billion by December 2020?
- McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price
- Precisely Why Bitcoin Is Re-accelerating
Altcoins
The altcoins appear to be headed for a peak price as priced in BTC (aka Bitcoin) probably in ~~March~~[February, c.f. update sections below] when they hit the overhead resistance ~~at the top of bullish wedges~~ on their price charts (as priced in BTC). And price peaks as priced in USD to be before or by May.
I posit that any breakout from these bullish wedges (as priced in “BTC”) may occur after the May 14 Bitcoin halving event and would be due to the Bitcoin Core impostor (aka “BTC”) crashing in price (with altcoins also perhaps correcting downwards in USD price but less egregiously so thus their price in “BTC” rising). The legacy Bitcoin (i.e. not BSV) is posited to continue rising in price towards $100+k in 2020 then 1+ million. It’s difficult to imagine at this juncture in the cryptocosm for example Ethereum gaining 10X or 20X value as priced in BTC without BTC being attacked. So these massive bullish wedges on the altcoin charts as priced in “BTC” may be signaling some massive attack on the impostor Bitcoin. See below for supporting charts. Thus I posit the prices of these altcoins relative to the legacy Bitcoin — i.e. not “BTC” but the original BTC before Core fucked it up with a softfork — will fall out the bottom of said “bullish” wedges. Ironic. The wedges are bullish for the impostor Core “BTC” but bearish for legacy (i.e. Satoshi’s original protocol) BTC (which is not BSV).
A case can be made for Litecoin to only rise to only between ~$85 and $98 thus LTC/BTC ratio to only between 0.0080 and 0.0082 on this posited rise of BTC to the top of said bullish flag wedge resistance (before a posited correction):
Another scenario would be ~$111 and 0.0093 near the purple 50 WMA:
But if there won’t be a surge much above $11k for Bitcoin, then the top for LTC/BTC may have already been reached at 0.08 until after a correction. In this scenario I could imagine a next spike (after or without any correction) to the very well defined overhead resistance line at ~$130 in ~~early March~~[late February, c.f. update sections below] which would provide LTC/BTC of ~0.0093 at another well defined overhead resistance line (with a Bitcoin price of ~$13.9k).
Although a quick move to ~$110 (before or without any correction) on that same overhead resistance line with Bitcoin topping at ~$11k would yield a ~0.01 LTC/BTC near the magenta 100 WMA. In this scenario a correction back to said well defined overhead resistance line at ~0.0094+. That posited correction would correspond to perhaps ~$82 LTC (which also meets a rapidly rising 50 DMA) and ~$8800 BTC.
I reiterated recently that GRS/BTC appears poised to jump to 0.000035+ later in February as Bitcoin is correcting. Next decline back to perhaps ~0.000030. ~~Then on the next spike of all in March, GRS/BTC could exceed 0.00007~~[c.f. update sections below]:
Ethereum (ETH/USD) has broken out above a massive bullish wedge which projects to between ~$850 to $1700:
Will ETH/BTC decline back to the purple 50 WMA at ~0.024 before rocketing to the magenta 100 WMA at ~0.036 (probably in February) and ultimately ~0.047 (probably in March)?
It’s plausible for a correction to the rapidly rising 50 DMA at ~0.028+ after a possibly quick rise to 0.036. That posited correction would correspond to perhaps ~$210 ETH (which also meets a rapidly rising 50 DMA) and ~$8800 BTC.
The ETH/BTC chart also has a long-term, bullish wedge which is projecting to between 0.3 and 0.8, probably after the May 14 Bitcoin halving event! That’s a 10X to 20X gain relative to “BTC”. Thus this seems to be confirming that the Bitcoin Core (aka “BTC”) which I posit to be the impostor Bitcoin, will be crashing in price after the May 14 event.
The analogous long-term, bullish wedge is less well-defined on LTC/BTC chart, and may have already failed to the downside.
Conclusion
Buy altcoins on this pause expecting a further surge before any correction of Bitcoin. Consider selling altcoins for Bitcoin if the stated targets are reached and wait to repurchase on any pullback. Note I don’t advise selling to USD because posited pullbacks may never occur.
If the correction to the bottom of the wedge for Bitcoin occurs now without a further surge to ~$11k, then grin and hodl, because altcoins are very likely headed to stated targets within a month.
I’m suggesting to trade (sell) altcoins for BTC when they reach the ~~top of their wedges~~[stated targets in update secions below] as priced in BTC (probably in March) and then hodl Bitcoin until late April or early May. I recently summarized the options for what to with Bitcoin in May and thereafter presuming my posited SegWit donations attack on the Bitcoin Core impostor comes to fruition:
It’s impossible to obtain virgin mined BTC now. No pools will provide it and no mining farm we can deal with is significant enough to mine outside of a pool.
The only viable options (if the price is ~$40+k before the May 14 halving event and thus likely the SegWit attack will occur) include:
- Sell some BTC before May 14.
- Hodl some BTC in legacy addresses (e.g. those that begin with a
1instead of3orbc1) and hope for a window of time to sell after the SegWit attack has died done (blocks not so full with donations) and before the FATF has ruled that mining farms must freeze tainted lineage BTC. Note the posited attack may destroy most of the exchanges, so no assurance of being able to cash out at the $100+k prices expect for the legacy BTC after the imposter Core BTC is destroyed.- Invest in ASIC mining hardware and sell the hardware when BTC is priced at $100+k later in 2020. Note the mining hardware is much cheaper if purchased in and kept in China.
- Go for a leveraged margin long position on BTC and generate more BTC before selling in May. Note this incurs risk if posited price rises do not occur.
- Speculate on
BSVrising after the posited attack. I am not confident about this. Might be a trap.
I’ll add:
6. Trade BTC for ETH if latter has transitioned to proof-of-stake. Delays were intentional? Hmm. But ETH may not perform as well as legacy BTC (because proof-of-stake is captured by an oligarchy, Ethereum isn’t immutable, not the original, not going to be a global reserve currency asset, etc).
P.S. I’m back in the USA. Now residing in Texas.
UPDATE Feb 16, 2020
Just now setup my desktop computer in my new apartment in Texas, so I could see what happened to the cryptocurrency prices the past two days.
I had my bid (buy) prices set for LTC/BTC from 0.0075 down to 0.0073, for ETH/BTC from 0.026 down to 0.025, for GRS/BTC from 0.000024 down to 0.000023. So obviously all of those filled during my absence over the past two days as I expected. Remember I stated in my recent blog that on the BTC chart there was a bearish rising wedge and the price would drop out causing a flash crash on the altcoins. I expected BTC to test the bottom of the rising bearish wedge on Sunday Feb. 16.
The altcoins moved to my absolute bottom targets relative to BTC, because the BTC price fell out of the wedge without bouncing to $11k after declining to the $10k bottom of the wedge — i.e. $10.5k was the top thus far and the wedge appears to have already peaked. My bids were set a bit higher than the absolute possible bottoms because I wasn’t sure whether BTC would decline to $10k then bounce to $11k (before falling out of the bearish rising wedge) thus possibly taking the altcoins to the next level higher relative to BTC before falling out of the wedge. I’m okay without missing the absolute bottoms of this bullish correction on the altcoins by about 5 – 10%. At least I bought back the altcoins for less than the price I sold them in early February.
URGENT: probably better jump on those altcoins now. BTC will likely to decline to between $9k and $9.5k over this week, but the altcoins will then start to moon w.r.t. to BTC as they also did in March 2019. Then next sudden lurch/surge upwards for BTC will send the altcoins to nosebleed levels. That should be in March 2020 and the altcoins should be traded (sold) for BTC then.
Maximum possible downsides for BTC is into the low-to-mid $8000s, but during Feb – April 2019, BTC only declined to the green 50 DMA on my charts. Thus it appears $9k will probably be the lowest. As it becomes clear BTC is not headed below $9k, the altcoins will start mooning. The market has shifted to bullish with some apprehension. AS the apprehension turns to FOMO, then the mooning.
UPDATE Feb 17, 2020
Started writing the following later in the day on Feb 16, but am finishing and posting it on the morning of Feb. 17. Note I sold some of my LTC and ETH at break even on the bounce to 0.00754 and 0.0267 while I sort out my analyses as follows…
Updated Litecoin Analysis
Further careful study of the LTC/BTC chart reveals February 13, 2020 likely corresponded to the fractal pattern of second week of March 2019. The acceleration from the bottom is posited to be ~2.4X (i.e. 0.4X duration) and thus the price rise relative to the initial bounce off the bottom is also ~0.4X. Thus, projecting ~0.088 on February 20, 2020 as the peak LTC/BTC. We must sell/trade LTC into BTC at that 0.088 price! Possibly the peak can be up to a key overhead resistance line ~0.091 (c.f. chart below). Possibly a double-top on March 18, 2020 which will meet the overhead resistance of the (purple on my charts) 50 WMA.
Note the current correction could bottom as low as ~0.068, but the bottom is likely already be behind us at 0.070 because LTC/USD has likely bottomed on its bearish rising wedge (shown in section below) otherwise LTC/USD would fall out of the wedge.
Updated Groestlcoin Analysis
In light of this further insight into deceleration and fractal correlation, GRS/BTC will peak at an absolute maximum of ~0.000037 and the more likely peak is between ~0.000029 and 0.000030, although the leverage so far relative to LTC with the presumption of LTC