My friend and journalist / commentator Melanie Phillips wrote this article today and I think it embodies the confusion of many people about what Trump is doing in the Middle East.
https://melaniephillips.substack.com/p/the-gold-plated-peacenik-in-the-white
I wrote an email in response which I thought I should share more broadly.
Hi Melanie, while I often agree with you, this article is a fundamental misunderstanding of both what the proper relationship between the US and Israel is and what Trump is doing.
Firstly, it is important to focus on reality - Trump has supplied Israel with everything it has ordered and paid for.
He has not stopped Israel doing anything and his tactics for getting hostages returned are effective.
Of course the US should be negotiating to get their citizen out of Gaza’s dungeons using every tool at their disposal, but not infringing Israel’s sovereignty. Every respectable country should be doing the same.
Houthis
Israel is a Great Power in ascendancy. It has decisively and strategically defeated all its enemies - some completely wiped out - and neutered the Iran octopus by cutting off all its tentacles. These are the greatest victories, at the lowest cost, in all the annals of warfare.
Its military prowess and societal strength combined with its strategic location, high fertility and high tech brilliance are unparalleled.
Israel does not need or want the US to fight for it. Zionism requires Israel to defend itself by itself.
Hence the US attacked the Houthis, not because Israel wanted this, but because the Houthis disrupted Freedom of Navigation and caused huge economic damage to many countries, but none to Israel. All the Anglo powers (US, UK, Australia, Canada) are highly dependent on free ocean trade. Israel is not.
While the US military is operating well below peak performance after years of Woke and bloat, it hit the Houthis hard enough to stop them attacking ships. Thus: Job Done.
Israel was able to cause the Houthis far more damage than the US in a single afternoon and turn the Houthi's asymmetrical warfare on its head. A few million $ of Israeli bombs cost Yemen tens of billions in economic damage. It also showed how the IDF is far more effective than the US Military.
India - Pakistan
I don’t think you understand what happened last week.
India inflicted a devastating defeat on Pakistan, destroying numerous critical military bases and almost decapitating, pager-style, the Pakistani military. Their nuclear facilities were hit and their drones failed to penetrate India’s multi-layered AD. They were left naked and afraid. Trump did nothing other than receive the Pakistani surrender.
India also established a very important rule - all terrorist attacks will be considered an act of war by the sponsoring state and a massive response will be forthcoming. Israel had started on this path with Iran but has not yet fully followed through. India has now led the way.
Iran’s entire global strategy of power projection via proxies is not only destroyed by Israel but invalidated by India.
Qatar
Qatar is literally a gas station masquerading as a country. A few naval drones hitting key energy infrastructure would end them.
They backed Iran and Hamas and now their bets have failed and they are looking to change tack and invest elsewhere.
The plane and the billions investment are a desperate payoff to the US to avoid imminent execution - the fate that awaits Iran's Mullahs.
Qatar's Emir was the condemned prisoner offering the King his fortune for a chance to reform.
The plane was a great trick by Trump. Suddenly everyone is talking about Qatari influence payments. This exposure undermines their effectiveness.
Iran
Israel holds all the cards on Iran and the US must dance to its tune.
This is because Israel can hit Iran very hard and wipe out its nukes and Iran can’t respond effectively against Israel. Its long range missiles are faulty, ineffective and can’t penetrate Israel’s defence. Plus it has used much of its arsenal and can’t build more due to Israeli strikes and port explosion. Its proxies are finished. It is impotent against Israel.
But Iran CAN threaten US Gulf allies and US bases in Iraq & Syria with medium range missiles and these are not defended by a multi-layer shield like Israel. It can also disrupt the oil trade and cause prices to spike.
None of this matters to Israel. The Israeli economy is immune to the oil price and no Israeli politician ever lost an election because of prices at the pump.
If Israel decides to hit Iran the US MUST also hit Iran’s medium range missiles, navy assets etc to prevent these bad things (for the US) happening.
Syria
No question that Jolani is an ISIS terrorist.
But he is also a realist and acknowledges Israel’s vast military superiority and the failure of the terrorist model.
As a good Muslim he is adopting a long term Hudna.
This means peace with Syria is possible, with IDF retention of key captured ground (like Hermon) and recognition of Israeli protection of the Druse.
Land for Peace. We take their land in a just war and get peace (or at least long term Hudna).
Same formula in Lebanon.