I spent many hours reading articles these days, trying to figure out what is going on, combining several pieces that by themselves seem harmless, but combined create a dark picture of the events happening in Ecuador at the moment. Sounds like a conspiracy theory? I hope it's just that.
This is an observation and interpretation of facts and sources that I found while trying to understand what is going on in my chosen home country, Ecuador. It’s my perspective. I might be wrong. I might have misunderstood. I might’ve used the wrong words. If you have any comments or further sources, I’m happy to review and be proven wrong.
A few days ago, Azircon wrote a piece about the playbook established by Duterte in 2016. As I read through his article, I found concerning parallels to what is going on here in Ecuador. To sum up the article, soft authoritarianism is established by weakening democracy and concentrating power on an elite, while upholding the appearance of a democracy.
Let’s start with the three pillars, and how the playbook is implemented by Daniel Noboa in Ecuador. The basis for everything is the ongoing security crisis in parts of Ecuador, with drug gang rampaging on the coast and crime breaking all time highs over and over again. As that is a sad fact, the promise of bringing security is also the argument for all the changes that are being implemented at the moment.
First Pillar: Legislative
The first and most important part of being able cement his power is through declaring an ongoing state of emergency, granting the president more power and the ability to rule by decree (155 in 2025), without proper process through being checked by the parliament.
With a reform to the Law of Democracy in June 2025, a threshold was introduced. Parties with less than 5% of the votes will no longer be represented in Parliament. While that is not uncommon (Germany has that, too), it comes at a suspicious time, as it’s benefiting both the ruling party that supports the president, as well as the only big opposition. Both of those parties voted for the change.
Within the many decrees, there were some that made it easier for the state to declare “terrorist” everyone who dares to rise up against them. In the current strike, 14 people have already been charged with “terrorism” due to their involvements in the riots, bringing rioting civilians to the same level as those who chop up humans and leave heads on spikes. The message is clear – comply or else.
Second Pillar: Executive
To solidify the power of the president, the executive is key as it’s directly under his control. Here, too, the state of emergency is of importance, as the president can use the troops within the country to enforce his will. By introducing two laws regarding this pillar, key elements of power would be given to the armed forces and the intelligence service.
The Solidarity Law
This would legalize the state of emergency as unlimited by including it into a law, stating that Ecuador is in an internal armed conflict (Art. 6). That law than goes on to give the president the right to pardon everyone involved in that conflict.
That gives the military the right to become an active player within the country. Of course, if used against the drug gangs, that can be an advantage, but at the same time a disadvantage in civil matters as they’re heavily armed and trained not for civil confrontations, but for war. While the handling of gangs merits that, having the military interfere with civil matters carries a big risk, as long as they’re not trained for that – and they aren’t, as it visible in the current situation. But that doesn’t matter, as the president can always pardon them if the law is passed.
A similarity is the system of “false positives” in Colombia. Military trained for war engaging with civilians, causing deaths of innocents and posterior marking them as “terrorists” to justify the killing.
The Intelligence Law
Mainly, it reforms the intelligence agency, which had the status of a secretary before, and gives it the status of a ministry. The most important parts here are the ability to obtain private information without any warrant by any judge. Military, Police and Intelligence Service could legally force telecommunication companies and others to provide data about anyone, without being checked by another institution (usually the judicial branch).
The intelligence service would also be able infiltrate and act within civil organizations, for example inciting violence within peaceful demonstrations to give reason to repress the movements. This is common tactic within intelligence mechanisms, the most famous one is the start World War 2 – “Poland fired first!”
Again, here, too, the measurements can make sense to effectively combat the drug gangs. The power itself is not the problem; it’s the hands that wield it. Power in responsible hands that seek the common good can be the solution. But power in the hands of those that seek personal benefit can be very destructive. Especially when that power is left unchecked, which may be the intention here. And that brings us to the third branch.
Third Pillar: Judiciary
As the Constitutional Court of Ecuador declared the laws unconstitutional, instead of honoring the constitution, Noboa started a campaign against the Constitutional Court. In a march against it, they showed pictures of the judges, with their names, claiming that they're stealing the peace.
That gave Noboa more reason to strive for a new constitution, which could be easily done with only a absolute majority of 77 votes at the moment. Luckily, just today, Noboa did not get his will. And yes, that is all going on during a huge strike within the country.
Discrediting and/or influencing the Judiciary is another step that leads to a concentration of power within the presidency. The Judiciary is supposed to be the unbiased branch, the one that acts and rules always within the constitution, representing the balance of values of society, base for all laws and rules. If it's credibility is taken, it's easy to ignore the rulings, it becomes apparently legitimate to do so.
Additionally, if the trust in that institution is destroyed, it’s a lot easier to switch from a rational (legal) system of leadership to an emotional (apparently legitimate) one, which brings us to the role of the media.
The Media
The media, more than anything social media, plays an important role in every playbook these days. Not only to spread highly biased misinformation, but also by using distractions and emotional triggers to sway the perception in favor of those in power. These days, facts are not needed anymore to do damage. Instead of having a rational response to what we see, instead of contemplating and then creating an informed response, we instantly blurt out our emotional response, in short phrases, without context, mostly without syntax.
That makes it incredibly easy to manipulate. Anger, fear, hate – and the drooling hordes are riled up instantly.
In the current protest, is blamed on the protesters, but I urge everyone to NOT give into the emotional impulse when seeing news like “Police station burned down by violent protesters!”, but dig a little deeper to find the whole (uglier) story. Do not share content randomly without validating or at least taking a few minutes to think (not feel!) about it. Please do not rush neither to judgments or opinions.
Same goes for comments on this article. As stated in the beginning, I’m not claiming the truth. It’s the how the pieces fit together based on what I found. If you disagree, please explain with arguments and if possible, with sources.
How does the removal of Subsidies fit in?
After the strikes in 2019, everyone agreed that the subsidies are overall hurtful and not a targeted measure to help the poorest. Starting 2020, over a span of 17 months, the price of Gasoline was gradually adapted to the world market price, ending with a decree by Noboa himself in 2024 ending the subsidy complete with another 10% bump in price. That worked.
Why not doing the same with Diesel? Looking at the current situation, with all the information above, as well as taking into consideration the incredibly quick escalation provoked mainly by the military (either through orders or lack of civil conflict training), including the deployment of tear gas from helicopters within the first hours of protest, I can only speculate that Noboa wants this conflict.
He's measuring and demonstrating his power. Around 1000 extra police and military forces battled their way to Otavalo this morning, so the president could arrive there to show just that. Not even thinking about negotiations, but calling the civil unrest terrorism after purposefully escalating the conflict into violence. That is after declaring Latacunga the temporary seat of the Executive Branch. Latacunga is whithin Cotopaxi, a province where the CONAIE is incredibly strong and where their former leader and still influential person, Leonidas Iza, comes from.
The show of force of coming into the center of the strike through violence is also a sign of weakness. He has not been able to reduce crime, murder rates are going up, the violence from the drug wars is rising. So, as he was elected to be a strong leader, but is factually not, he creates a situation where he indeed can show force, can show strength – against civilians, not drug gangs. That also fits why he puts them as terrorists, so he can pretend to be strong and say: “Look at me, I can give security!” while he is really not.
It reeks of provocation. The question is why? One answer could be that after suppressing the civil movements and arresting their leaders for terrorism, he would have no more serious opposition in Ecuador. He could just continue to govern on without any disturbance and execute his plans. The other answer could be to distract from the vote on creating a new constitution (which fortunately failed).
Conclusion
So, after reviewing and reading and discussing and listening to hopefully all sides, it does seem like the bigger picture is quite ugly. I’m certain now that this protest is planned and wanted, that the violence is deliberately provoked and the escalation is not at its end, but advancing quicker than I thought. I never hoped so much to be wrong.
Sources:
https://www.primicias.ec/politica/bancada-adn-votos-asamblea-respaldo-constituyente-noboa-ecuador-105602/ https://gk.city/2025/08/29/ataques-daniel-noboa-corte-constitucional-explicados/ https://gk.city/2025/06/13/ley-inteligencia-ecuador-espionaje-seguridad-estado/ https://gk.city/2025/07/01/claves-entender-reforma-codigo-democracia-ecuador/ https://up2date.uni-bremen.de/en/article/soft-authoritarianism https://www.teleamazonas.com/actualidad/noticias/politica/articulos-leyes-suspendidos-corte-constitucional-ecuador-100069/ https://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica/adn-correismo-se-abstienen-votar-reforma-codigo-de-la-democracia/
Español (Traducido por Grok, ya me cansé...)
He pasado muchas horas leyendo artículos estos días, tratando de entender qué está pasando, combinando varias piezas que por sí solas parecen inofensivas, pero juntas crean un panorama oscuro de los eventos que ocurren en Ecuador en este momento. ¿Suena como una teoría de conspiración? Espero que solo sea eso.
Esta es una observación e interpretación de hechos y fuentes que encontré mientras intentaba entender qué está pasando en mi país adoptivo, Ecuador. Es mi perspectiva. Puedo estar equivocado. Puedo haber malinterpretado. Puedo haber usado las palabras incorrectas. Si tienes comentarios o fuentes adicionales, estoy feliz de revisarlos y aceptar que me demuestren que estoy equivocado.
Hace unos días, Azircon escribió un artículo sobre el manual establecido por Duterte en 2016. Mientras leía su artículo, encontré paralelismos preocupantes con lo que está ocurriendo aquí en Ecuador. Para resumir el artículo, el autoritarismo suave se establece debilitando la democracia y concentrando el poder en una élite, mientras se mantiene la apariencia de una democracia.
Comencemos con los tres pilares y cómo Daniel Noboa implementa este manual en Ecuador. La base de todo es la crisis de seguridad en curso en partes de Ecuador, con pandillas de narcotraficantes causando estragos en la costa y el crimen alcanzando máximos históricos continuamente. Como esto es un hecho triste, la promesa de brindar seguridad también es el argumento para todos los cambios que se están implementando en este momento.
Primer Pilar: Legislativo
La primera y más importante parte para consolidar el poder es declarando un estado de emergencia continuo, que otorga al presidente más poder y la capacidad de gobernar por decreto (155 en 2025), sin un proceso adecuado de revisión por parte del parlamento.
Con una reforma a la Ley de Democracia en junio de 2025, se introdujo un umbral. Los partidos con menos del 5% de los votos ya no estarán representados en el Parlamento. Aunque esto no es raro (Alemania también lo tiene), llega en un momento sospechoso, ya que beneficia tanto al partido gobernante que apoya al presidente como a la única gran oposición. Ambos partidos votaron a favor del cambio.
Entre sus decretos, hubo varios que facilitan al Estado declarar “terrorista” a cualquiera que se atreva a levantarse contra ellos. En las actuales huelgas, 14 personas ya han sido acusadas de “terrorismo” por su participación en los disturbios, equiparando a civiles alborotadores con aquellos que descuartizan personas y dejan cabezas en estacas. El mensaje es claro: obedece o atente a las consecuencias.
Segundo Pilar: Ejecutivo
Para fortalecer el poder del presidente, el ejecutivo es clave, ya que está directamente bajo su control. Aquí también el estado de emergencia es importante, ya que el presidente puede usar las tropas dentro del país de esta manera, imponiendo su voluntad. Al introducir dos leyes relacionadas con este poder, se otorgan elementos clave de poder a las fuerzas armadas y al servicio de inteligencia.
La Ley de Solidaridad
Esta legalizaría el estado de emergencia como ilimitado al incluirlo en una ley, declarando que Ecuador está en un conflicto armado interno (Art. 6). Esa ley luego otorga al presidente el derecho de indultar a todos los involucrados en ese conflicto.
Esto le da a los militares el derecho de convertirse en un actor activo dentro del país. Por supuesto, si se usa contra las pandillas de narcotraficantes, puede ser una ventaja, pero al mismo tiempo una desventaja para la población ya que los militares están fuertemente armados y entrenados no para enfrentamientos civiles, sino para la guerra. Aunque el manejo de pandillas lo justifique, que los militares interfieran en asuntos civiles conlleva un gran riesgo, siempre que no estén entrenados para ello, y no lo están, como se ve en la situación actual. Pero eso no importa, ya que el presidente siempre puede indultarlos si la ley se aprueba.
Una similitud es el sistema de “falsos positivos” en Colombia. Militares entrenados para la guerra interactúan con civiles, causando muertes de inocentes y luego marcándolos como “terroristas” para justificar los asesinatos.
La Ley de Inteligencia
Principalmente, reforma la agencia de inteligencia, que antes tenía el estatus de secretaría, y le otorga el estatus de ministerio. Las partes más importantes aquí son la capacidad de obtener información privada sin ninguna orden judicial. Militares, policía y el servicio de inteligencia podrían obligar legalmente a las compañías de telecomunicaciones y otras a proporcionar datos sobre cualquier persona, sin ser revisados por otra institución (generalmente el poder judicial).
El servicio de inteligencia también podría infiltrarse y actuar dentro de organizaciones civiles, por ejemplo, incitando violencia dentro de manifestaciones pacíficas para dar razones para reprimir los movimientos. Esta es una táctica común dentro de los mecanismos de inteligencia; el ejemplo más famoso es el inicio de la Segunda Guerra Mundial: “¡Polonia disparó primero!”
Nuevamente, estas medidas pueden tener sentido para combatir eficazmente a las pandillas de narcotraficantes. El poder en sí no es el problema; son las manos que lo ejercen. El poder en manos responsables que buscan el bien común puede ser la solución. Pero