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#### Prologue
I've been calculating land for quite a while now. Each of the posts linked below are a little tutorial by themselves, and doing all that helped me understand Land at a higher level. Today, I made a deal with a friend. I bough 3 plots for $45, one rare and two commons. Especially the rare was interesting, as it's a Canyon, which will let me harvest stone. Currently, an SPS mine sits there.
I now have the unique chance to turn all my fantasies and calculations into motion. And I'll run you through what I'm going to do in the next 2-4 weeks, and what is needed, and how much the likely earnings will be on that (depending on development of price).
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#### Setting up.
This is a long-term set-up. Goal is 3 years. Since I already calculated everything I need, the set up is easy for me now. Except Runi. I should calculate Runi. Next time.
Calculations are based on a more or less consistent stone price.
I got lucky and paid 15$ for my plot.
The goal is to get to 25k Production Points, as my base case. It's really good that my plot is a Canyon, since that gives me a 10% bonus on Fire, Death and Dragon units. Most terrain types only have 2 boosts, and having more flexibility is good as I have more selection on which cards to use, and hence better prices. We'll talk prices below.
I want to make the maximum out of this plot, so I will also buy a Rare Totem. It's return will overcome the return of the cheaper common totem after around 850 days, so within my 3 year timeline.
Same goes for a rare title, which is a little closer with 935 days - if the stone price stays the same.
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#### What cards?
I dusted out my old Card/Production Coefficient (CPC) Calculator, and fed it with the current prices. I only used Untamed, Beta and Alpha. Chaos Legion has very high CPC, and the Cost/1000 PP is also not appealing.
Looking at only the prices and PP, Rare Beta cards win the race. They provide the most PP for the $, and a maxed card brings 5,500 PP.
All these prices already include the DEC needed to stake them.
Including the production per Energy-Cost, so the overall efficiency, Beta Rares are still quite good. Yes, Beta Rare GF would be a lot better, but also a lot more costly, as we can see above. The only card type that is more efficient than those is the Alpha Rare GF, with a CPC of 4,63 against the Beta Rare GF with 4,92.
To max a GF Beta Rare, I would pay around $200. That gives me 20,000 PP, short of my goal. But it's only 1 slot occupied, only 10k DEC in Energy. I could add 1 maxed regular foil, be at 25,500 PP, and have paid a total of 233$ - with possibility to further expand.
For 5 regular Beta Rare, I pay $165, and get 27,500 PP. Since I run this for the long term, I'll see if I can go for option one - hopefully, someone will sell me a card like that.
Let's say I pay $233 to get my wished PP, with staked DEC.
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Overall Cost
Setup as planned
|Item|Cost|
|---|---|
|Plot|$15|
|Energy Core|$5|
|Cards and Energy|$233|
|Rare Totem|$70|
|Rare Title|$60|
|Total|$383|
That's a good amount of change. Let's see what I can expect from that.
High Cost Efficiency (Short Term) model
| Item | Cost |
|---|---|
| Plot | $15 |
| Energy Core | $5 |
| Cards and Energy | $165 |
| Common Totem | $15 |
| Total | $200 |
https://images.hive.blog/0x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/saydie/23tSMrBK495yadzSKriVB9FkEtftyayqE76JDxWPJsATmCdvqi8G8tHKVfT9SQ4p8MEBX.png
Revenue Estimation
Long Term Model
| What | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Grain Cost | 25,500 x 0,01 | 255 Grain/hour |
| Total Production | 25,500 + 45% (Rarity, Totem, Title) | 36,975 PP |
| Stone Production | 36,975 PP x 0.002 | 73.95/hour |
| minus 10% tax | 73,95 - 10% | 66.555/hour |
| Stone for Grain | 255 / 9,75 | 26.155 Stone/hour |
| Total Stone Production | 66.555-26.155 | 40.4 Stone/hour |
| Total DEC Production | 40.4 Stone/h * 0.086 DEC/Stone | 3.47 DEC/h |
| Daily | 3.47 x 24 | 83.28 DEC/d |
| Monthly | 83.28 x 30 | 2500 DEC/m |
| Yearly | 83.28 x 365 | 30,397 DEC/y |
| annual ROI at DEC peg | 30,397 / 383,000 x 100 | 7.93% |
Short Term Model
| What | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Grain Cost | 27,500 x 0,01 | 275 Grain/hour |
| Total Production | 27,500 + 20% (Rarity, Totem) | 33,000 PP |
| Stone Production | 33,000 PP x 0.002 | 66 Stone/hour |
| minus 10% tax | 66 - 10% | 59,4/hour |
| Stone for Grain | 275 / 9,75 | 28.2 Stone/hour |
| Total Stone Production | 59.4 - 28.2 | 31.2 Stone/hour |
| Total DEC Production | 31.2 Stone/h * 0.086 DEC/Stone | 2.68 DEC/h |
| Daily | 2.68 x 24 | 64.4 DEC/d |
| Monthly | 64.4 x 30 | 1930 DEC/m |
| Yearly | 64.4 x 365 | 23,500 DEC/y |
| annual ROI at DEC peg | 23,500 / 200,000 x 100 | 11.75% |
Long Term Highest Investment
That looks like a good beat for the short term - but wait a minute. I still have 3 slots available for my Long Term Case. What if I filled those with RF Rare Beta? Total cost would go up to
| What | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Grain Cost | 42,000 x 0,01 | 420 Grain/hour |
| Total Production | 42,000 + 45% (Rarity, Totem, Title) | 60,900 PP |
| Stone Production | 63,525 PP x 0.002 | 121.08 Stone/hour |
| minus 10% tax | 121.08 - 10% | 109.62 Stone/hour |
| Stone for Grain | 420 / 9,75 | 43.08 Stone/hour |
| Total Stone Production | 109.62 - 43.08 | 66.54 Stone/hour |
| Total DEC Production | 66.54 Stone/h * 0.086 DEC/Stone | 5.72 DEC/h |
| Daily | 5.72 x 24 | 137.34 DEC/d |
| Monthly | 137.34 x 30 | 4,120 DEC/m |
| Yearly | 137.34 x 365 | 50,130 DEC/y |
| annual ROI at DEC peg | 50,130 / 472,000 x 100 | 10.62% |
Short Term High Bonus
Yes, we can do that, too. We're here to find the best way to invest over 3 years. The biggest cost is the cards, so if we use the Short Term Cards, but the Long Term Bonus, we spend $315 / 315,000 DEC
| What | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Grain Cost | 27,500 x 0,01 | 275 Grain/hour |
| Total Production | 27,500 + 45% (Rarity, Totem, Title) | 39,875 PP |
| Stone Production | 39,875 PP x 0.002 | 79.75 Stone/hour |
| minus 10% tax | 79.75 - 10% | 71.775/hour |
| Stone for Grain | 275 / 9.75 | 28.2 Stone/hour |
| Total Stone Production | 71.775 - 28.2 | 43.57 Stone/hour |
| Total DEC Production | 43.57 Stone/h * 0.086 DEC/Stone | 3.75 DEC/h |
| Daily | 4 x 24 | 90 DEC/d |
| Monthly | 96 x 30 | 2700 DEC/m |
| Yearly | 96 x 365 | 32,830 DEC/y |
| annual ROI at DEC peg | 32,830 / 315,000 x 100 | 10.42% |
Okay, 4 of those tables are more than enough. Too much. But the possibilities are endless, and I calculated an "All in" as well, spending $1000 on 5 max Gold Foil Rare Betas. I won't. But the ROI is only 10,47%. The extra spending does not reflect well in that. Let me see if I can make a graph...
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#### Scenarios
Yeah, I might be getting a little too far here. But I hope it's still of value. I built a little calculator to run those scenarios and then used them to build a graph correlating Investment and ROI.
I ran quite a few scenarios as you can see, and there's no clear pattern. I would have to create an "Count If" to make correlations really clear, but the best ROI is still Beta Rare Regular Foils on a rare plot with common totem - 11,75%.
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#### Conclusion
I'm going to got for the highest ROI for now. I got some other plots in the deal, and whenever I feel like it, i can upgrade. But for now, it makes the most sense to do it like this. If anyone wants to sell 1-5 max rare Beta regular foil (Fire, Death or Dragon) - let me know!
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Former posts:
Calculating Land part 1 - How to get your ROI
Calculating Land part 2 - Are pools worth it?
Calculating Land part 3 - Organic Growth
Land Plot Efficiency for non-whales
Card-Production-Coefficient - Combining LPE and ROI
Renting for Land - at what cost?
Risks to my strategy
What do refined resources cost?
Real cost of Wagons
How to perfectly adjust your wagons
Calculating Totem and Title boosts
Calculating Plot Rarity Boost
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Thank you very much for reading, I hope you enjoyed it at least as much as I enjoyed writing :-D If you have any comments or feedback - please let me know! And don't forget to leave your own posts for me to curate. Thank you very much!
If you don't play the game yet, you can use my referral: Click here for referral :-)u