Weak labor market - support for markets
On Friday we saw more weak numbers coming from the US labor market. Only 22,000 newly jobs in August, less than expected. Revised numbers showed that in June there was even a net job loss, the first since several years. Unempoyment rising further to now 4.3%.
The probability of a first interest rate cut this month is now at 89% and the market is expecting two more cuts in October (71%) and December (65%) according to the Fed Watch Tool.
Thing is that the Fed could get into some kind of dilemma if inflation stays sticky since that would implicate to keep rates steady.
My base scenario is still lower interest rates, starting this month. This would foster the strong performance of the stock market YTD and could ignite another rallye of Bitcoin abd Alts.
