The Gold Consolidation is officially over this week with the spot price breaking out to new All-Time-Highs. The price has run up quickly to touch $3,600 USD as markets close for the weekend so stackers all around the world will be rejoicing. Of course I am very happy because I called for a 3-6 month consolidation back in April and it’s turned out to be just under 4 and a half months so I feel like I am reading this market well so far in 2025.
I had pointed out that the Gold Consolidation Begins to Coil about 9 days ago signaling a pending strong move and almost immediately that coil has sprung upward. Gold has taken out to the top of the Coiling Range and then the previous All-Time-High at $3,500 USD within just a couple of days. There are a lot of green candles on the daily chart there as the price has run up to $3,600 USD to finish the week. It’s still possible that this could be a False Breakout but I do think at this point it’s unlikely and a push above $3,600 USD next week would be a good confirmation for me that we are rallying higher.
To me it looks like this is Fresh Momentum for Gold and we have clear skies ahead once again. That means the next challenge is to pick the target for where this rally might run to. At this stage I am looking for $4,000 USD but it is too early to know just how strong, and long, this next rally might be. I’d personally prefer a more sustainable long grinding plod higher than a sharp rip-your-face-off move but neither would surprise at this point.
From a Fundamentals Analysis perspective, one of the possible catalysts for this move higher could be the poor Jobs Report and Bad Unemployment Data that has just come out of the US on Friday. This is leading to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will not just Cut Interest Rates on the worlds reserve currency at their next meeting, but it might be a bigger 50bps cut. That sort of outcome would weaken the USD further and give fresh legs to a rally in the Monetary Metals (and Crypto too while we’re at it). Watch this space…
DISCLAIMER - This is not financial advice