Hey guys! I originally wrote an article criticising the economy of Drug Wars, I titled it "Unpopular Opinion: Why the Drug Wars' Economy Is Unsustainable". However, I respect @hightouch and everything he's doing for the blockchain so I decided to message him before I posted. I told myself if he doesn't reply in an hour I'll just post it, but he replied within minutes, and talked to me for much longer. I'll post my original article below and I'll include a paraphrased version of his response below!

Drug Wars is a new game on the Steem Blockchain that has become widely popular, climbing to number 2 in the daily Steem Apps ranking only a few days after release. I personally started playing on the second day, and was met with some technical difficulties so didn't really start until the third day of its release. I've spent (very roughly) around 100 STEEM in total across my accounts so I'm not trying to FUD, just trying to analyse and discuss some serious issues with the economy of the game.

The Snowball Effect

I assume the game tries to take advantage of the snowball effect, as more players come in and invest STEEM, there's more money to be distributed in the daily rewards thus making it more lucrative, which incentivizes users to invest more, thus continuing the cycle. However, there will be a point where this reaches its peak, and the investment to reward ratio simply isn't worth it anymore.

This is due to a couple of reasons, as you level up more on your account, it costs more and more for the same benefit so there's simply not much point levelling up a single account very high. Therefore, people will simply stop spending money to level up (and thus the rewards pool will start decreasing). The second reason is because the rewards pool comes from others' investments, thus if you're making a gain others are making a loss. This heavily benefits early users, so it's expected that there's a massive boom in users at the beginning and it will slowly trickle down over time. Furthermore, remember only 80% of investments go towards the rewards pool and 20% goes towards the developers (which is fair of course), but that decreases the chances of making a profit even more.

Decreasing Marginal Benefit

So, let's explore the first problem. The more you upgrade, the more it costs to upgrade yet it gives you the exact same return as the previous upgrade, so what's the point of upgrading? If no one is upgrading, then where does the reward pool come from? The rewards pool will simply decrease over time and therefore users will have less and less incentive to upgrade, thus breaking the snowball effect.

Furthermore, the amount of drug production keeps going up which means by purchasing an upgrade, you're receiving less and less of the percentage of total drug production and less of the rewards pool. To keep up with this, the rewards pool should always be directly proportional to the total amount of drugs produced, which means people will need to spend more and MORE money as time goes on, which personally I don't see happening due to the problem above. What I do see, is more and more people turning into "leaches" as they've spent enough money and turn into free to play players.

Leaches

This is the term I'd like to give myself and people like me. I've made my initial investment, I'm close to making it all back and now I just plan on logging in daily to invest some drugs and making no new investments, simply leaching from the rewards pool everyday as a free to play player. This is simply because there's really no incentive for me to invest any more. It costs so much to upgrade my buildings that it's simply not worth it. As more people turn into people like me, it will decrease inventive to invest and thus decrease investors even more, thus creating a snowball effect but in the opposite direction of the one first mentioned.

Putting it bluntly

How do you "win" at this game? You make your investments early, set up your means of production and start gathering resources. You refer more players into the game, thus earning both referral rewards AND increasing the rewards pool which makes your original investments more worthwhile. As soon as there's no more new money coming into the game, it will collapse as the downwards snowball starts. This essentially sounds like a pyramid scheme. Don't forget, the only way for you to make a profit is for others to make a loss!

Gaming on Steem

Personally, I am all for gaming on Steem. I have been pushing for it since 2017 when I first arrived on here and started playing Steem Monsters from the first or second week of its release. However, I don't think Drug Wars is the most well-thought out concept. I respect what @hightouch and his team are doing for the Steem blockchain and can't wait to see what more of their developments like OnGame has to offer!

@hightouch's response

The article in italics was what I was planning to post before I contacted @hightouch, however after a conversation with him on Discord I decided to include his response.

His focus on this GAME isn't about it being an investment, it's about it being a game! His vision is to make it a competitive and fun to play game, with financial gain as an added incentive, not the main goal. Personally, I think the best example of this is thinking why do people spend tons of money on free to play games with NO potential financial gain associated with it at all? It's for the competition and fun! @hightouch aims to make this game fun and competitive through battles and many more features and as he said, "I made it like a game not as a way to make money".

He also mentioned if the snowball effect downwards does begin, he has ways to "reach other players ;)", not really sure what this means but I am excited to find out! He also mentioned "reaching other blockchains with our technology" a couple times, I'm not sure what he's alluding to but I'm excited!

His final words were: "let finish the fights and we will make a priority of missions so everyone can have fun even when they start"

Despite starting quite pessimistic of the project, I've now gained a new perspective. I now see it more as a game, rather than an investment and will play accordingly, have fun guys!!

Ongame.io

Lastly, since I had some time with him I mentioned his platform ongame.io which appears to be down at the moment. I was wondering if it's still in development. He assured me it very much still is and he's gotten a partnership and a potential new investor. This is very exciting news for me, an avid gamer, and I'm sure by integrating gaming into the Steem blockchain will be a MASSIVE addition.

Although there are blockchains like Enjin, I feel like the Steem blockchain can be the all in one ecosystem for gamers, where you can buy/sell games, play games, make games, stream games, watch games, explore games, write about games, literally everything related to gaming, something exists for it on here!