Another reason to stack some more Corn?
All the Bitcoin drama with Core version 30 seems to be coming to a head in a big way. A lot of Bitcoiners could see this coming a mile away; knowing that running Knots nodes in protest of core's removal wasn't actually going to achieve any goal other than signal they didn't like what was happening.
https://x.com/stutxo/status/1978302958929396038
UASF is an acronym which stands for User Activated Soft Fork in the context of Bitcoin.
A UASF is the coordinated activation of a Bitcoin soft fork on a specified date and enforced by a of full nodes rather than relying on miners alone. In order to succeed, participating nodes must represent the so-called “economic majority” – users, exchanges and businesses with significant influence over the Bitcoin economy. A UASF requires developer, industry and user coordination. In the past, a UASF was successfully carried out to activate the P2SH soft fork (aka BIP16). On Feb 25, 2017, a contributor named Shaolin Fry proposed that UASF be used to activate Segregated Witness and later published details in BIP148.
Soft-fork eh
I'm honestly still not buying this narrative. Of course there are lot of more educated people than myself that claim a soft-fork in retaliation of Core v30 is possible, but as we can see from the definition of "economic majority" it is perhaps highly unlikely that 51%+ of the network would agree to a soft fork that would prune "spam" from the blockchain and ignore otherwise valid blocks.
Why would miners be on board with this? Why would exchanges, who are inherently not toxic maximalists, care enough to take such effort and risk to make the change? I'm still under the impression that a lot of this exuberance is fueled by delusion, and that a potential chain split is inevitable if the Knots crew keeps pushing it.
And why are they continuing to push it?
Because the narratives being espoused are easily digestible to Bitcoin maximalists.
- I hate shitcoins ✔️
- I hate child abuse ✔️
- I hate those dirty Core dev liberals ✔️
It has legitimately gotten to the point where some of these people actually believe that it's impossible to be left-wing and a Bitcoiner. As if Bitcoin has anything to do with partisan politics whatsoever. The propaganda narratives of this issue have spun out of control, and honestly at this point I almost wonder if this entire movement is being manipulated by more experienced sinister agents in the background.
https://x.com/udiWertheimer/status/1845566183824634363
As for the Knots maintainer himself
There are all kinds of crazy rumors I hear about him. He's a crazy fundamentalist Roman Catholic who eats cats. His delusions of persecution and grandeur have led him to claim that Bitcoin isn't decentralized enough because he has to "singlehandedly save it every couple of years" (he actually said this recently). He's an FBI informant after having 300 BTC stolen from him (accompanied by photos of him constantly walking around with a phone in his shirt pocket recording everything). Everything about this guy, and just situation in general, is pretty batshit crazy once you start digging into it.
https://x.com/L0laL33tz/status/1971319651675041960
"Old news" from 3 weeks ago
Again in crypto it's insane how quickly things move. First their was a plan of a hard-fork and now everyone is talking about avoiding the chain split with a soft-fork. Again, I don't have the technical knowledge to even understand how this is possible and I'm not going to try and figure it out until an actual proposal goes up that can be definitively analyzed rather than speculated on.
https://x.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1977400228857651709
Again when I see stuff like this I get a little confused because it's like... wouldn't you take the guy who's actively fighting against you off your "most trusted" whitelist? I don't get it. There's really a lot of information overload regarding all this drama and it's difficult to filter out the noise.
https://x.com/mononautical/status/1978309485757116583
Battle of the brand name?
Clearly this one is satire as it assumes that it will be a hardfork and that Knots will lose the battle... which is kind of what we all have to assume if the situation escalates this far. Bitcoin Cash didn't want to be called Bitcoin Cash; they wanted to win the hash war and be called Bitcoin. Same with Satoshi's Vision BSV. Every Bitcoin hardfork attempted has failed because the original chain always recaptures the brand name with the most hash rate and adoption. I can't imagine any variant of Knots would be any different.
So an airdrop is possible?
It seems unlikely at the moment but sure, it is possible that this situation escalates into a hardfork and chain-split with an airdrop of the new token. A token whose holders will call it the "real Bitcoin" just like BCH and BSV did when they lost. The difference is their might be a lot more money to make if that happens due to the absolute never-ending irrational zealotry we see coming out of this debate.
A chain split resulting from this argument in particular would create an exponentially bigger divide in the community. Both BSV and BCH were just trying to do one simple thing: increase the blocksize. It was not a moral or political issue. If the Knotzi maximalists fork off the chain to Bitcoin Pure or whatever, they're going to be doing it under the impression that they are fighting against shitcoins, political opponents, and child porn. And while there are plenty of reasons and rational arguments against those narratives... it doesn't matter. People are going to believe them no matter what the truth of the issue is.
That means a lot of these guys would be dumping the Bitcoin they've been stacking for a decade into the other token. So the potential for an airdrop like this to be worth a ton of money (especially at the beginning when hype is high and the ignorant mob follows) is astronomical. Of course I assume that in the end a lot of these people are going to lose a lot of money. At this point whatever chain is called Bitcoin is going to win. Pretty sure the brand alone is enough to carry it.
Conclusion
So will there be a chain split and subsequent airdrop for Bitcoin? So far it seems as though that outcome is being avoided like the plague, and rightfully so. However, I can guarantee you that there is definitively enough fomenting discontent in the community for a chain split, so we should be prepared for one to happen no matter what the landscape looks like today.
What does that mean? Maybe stack a little more BTC. Maybe keep it off the exchanges so you maintain full control of your coins and the airdrop at all times. Coincidentally this is good advice on any day of the week ending in 'Y'.
Maybe don't put this guy in charge of your net worth.
Knots needs more devs and a governance structure to be taken seriously.