I doubt we go below 80K But one thing is true, as I see markets (stock indexes & such) give signal of issues, Bitcoin has never had a 2008 to deal with yet, march 2020 we saw Bitcoin drop 55% in 25 hours but all the central banks of the world printed and the 40% down stock indexes all boomed higher like a v so we haven’t had a long real deep recession & stock crash since bitcoins creation. I believe Bitcoin may go down and next bear cycle can be triggered by a situation like this, sorta how FTX sped up when alts & bitcoin bottomed in 2022, it likely would of been 2023 but the action took crypto down faster than was likely timing wise. We shall see, Maybe we see the bull cycle high end up 126K if that happens soon. Still not bad performance but we are only a few weeks from November & the top has always been November or December the year after having (2013/2017/2021) so maybe we top early. I was thinking more likely the timing was off other way and we could see a January or February top instead. We shall see! But the move from 126K to 100K is normal. We went down 33% 3 times in 2017 before making cycle top of 19K & twice in 2021 before making high of 69K for cycle high so a correction to 95K say, that’s not weird at all and easily we go to 150K or 170K for cycle top. But a real deep recession would push Bitcoin down short term as is normal for it to sell off as it’s only thing liquid after hours & on weeks generally speaking. I remember the market crash 8/5/24, and Bitcoin went down 20% day b4 on Sunday signaling people selling to cover margin calls when the Yuan carry trade broke and stock indexes were predicted to crash. Ended up only being a bad week not a correction iveralll but that’s also when hive bottomed to .1488 which we only now have broke. So hive is lower now than when Bitcoin was 49K.
Bottom line, Bitcoin looking just fine. But personally believe only thing that can make it too early is a deep recession and stock crash of 30% So a real one like tech crash, 2008 and so on. Either way Hive will go way lower and crypto space continues to separate & finally not go up all together which long term is good & we needed.
I explain better in audio. I will discuss this in my Week-End market vlog tomorrow!