Round 11 of the Premier League has the makings of a classic.
The term '6 pointer' is regularly used to describe games that involve 2 relegation candidates and while we've certainly got a couple of them this week, there are also a number of fixtures being contested by teams who will have similar end of season ambitions as one another (Spurs v United, Palace v Brighton, Everton v Fulham) not to mention a top of the table clash between the only 2 sides to have won the league over the last 8 seasons.
The downside? Another international break to follow
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We kick things off this weekend with what should be a cracker!
Spurs beat United 4 times last season including in their most recent encounter back in May as the North London side won their first major trophy for 17 years by defeating United in the Europa League final.
You'd expect then that United will be out for revenge and on current form you'd fancy their chances. Unbeaten in their last 4, Ruben Amorim's side are looking increasingly comfortable and confident in what their manager is asking them to do.
Spurs major achilles heal at the moment appears to be their home form and while fingers have been pointed at Thomas Frank's pragmatic approach the issues extend much farther than that. In fact, Spurs have won just 3 of their last 19 league matches at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, a run stretching back to October 2024 suggesting that the confidence of the players and supporters needs fixing just as much as the tactics.
United's summer spending on forward options has begun to reap it's rewards. Their goals scored per game already up to 1.7 compared to 1.16 across 24/25. However, in the same period their goals against per game has risen from 1.42 to 1.6 suggesting that at least some of that attacking threat has been traded for defensive reliability.
This much is true particularly away from home where United's xG against of 10.6 is the 3rd worst in the league this season. The question is can Spurs who themselves have the 3rd worst xG for in home matches this season do anything about that?
Fulham got a vital home win against bottom placed Wolves last time out to move themselves clear of the relegation spots and now travel to Everton, a side that they'll consider direct rivals for a mid-table finish.
The West London side will be hoping that they can transfer their excellent recent record at Goodison Park to Everton's shiny new Hill Dickinson Stadium. Marco Silva's side are unbeaten in their last 5 visits to the Toffees including 3 wins and a draw in the Premier League.
However, away points have been very difficult to come by this season for the Cottagers who have picked up just 1 on their travels to date - only Wolves have a comparably poor record on the road.
Everton of course lost their last match at home, their first defeat at their new stadium, courtesy of a couple of Micky Van de Ven headers, the only 2 set-piece goals they've conceded this season.
You'd expect that was a statistical blip but where they continue to struggle is putting chances away in front of their fans. They are the joint lowest scorers at home this season with the second worst conversion rate (5 goals scored from an xG of 8.15).
Big big game at the bottom of the league as West Ham look to build on their first home win since February by going back to back in the league for the first time since October 2024.
There was an interesting stat doing the rounds this week that showed that across the last 10 seasons, every promoted side that has 11 or more points at the 10 game mark has stayed in the Premier League. Burnley have 10 points!It very much demonstrates the importance of the claret derby with West Ham able to move level on points with Burnley if they get a win.
The 3 goals the Hammers managed against Newcastle more than doubled their tally at home this season (from 2 to 5) and they now find themselves up against the side with the worst defensive record away from home in 25/26. Burnley have shipped 15 goals in their 5 away trips to date conceding 2 or more goals in each of those games.
For a side that has statistically the worst attack in the league, giving up 2 goals a game is not exactly a recipe for success. Of course their not so secret weapon against this West Ham team will be set-pieces, they've scored from 3 such occasions already this season and you'd expect that if they are to get anything from this game, that a goal from a corner/free kick is their most likely route.
With their closest rivals and most likely challengers for the title going head to head this weekend, this match represents an opportunity for Arsenal to add to their lead at the top.
However, I doubt anyone is going to get an easy ride when they visit Sunderland this season. The Black Cats are unbeaten at the Stadium of Light since returning to the Premier League.
Based on performances to date, I wouldn't expect this to be an end to end thriller. There have been just 8 goals scored in Arsenal's 5 away matches this season while the Stadium of Light has seen just 12 goals in the same period of time.
Both these teams are built from the back as Arsenal lead the way with an xG against of just 6.57 while Sunderland sit 5th by the same measure, a remarkable achievement for a newly promoted side.
The Gunners have 8 wins to nil so far this season including 5 in their last 5 Premier League games. Sunderland have managed to score in all their home games this season but have also allowed their opponents to score first in 3 of their 5 games. Continuing that trend may prove fatal in this fixture.
Wolves joined the sack race by releasing Vitor Pereira from his duties just a matter of weeks after extending his contract - good call!
The fact that they don't really seem to have anyone lined up to replace him tells you everything you need to know about the shambles that is unfolding at the club. Wolves are now 1.2 (1/5) to go down and I think getting a 20% return on your money in 6 months time looks like a pretty decent investment.
A club will often bring in a new manager when they feel that there is a decent run of fixtures for them to get some early momentum from. That doesn't appear to be the case for whoever takes over at Wolves. In fact, their last 4 games look liked the best run of fixtures they'll get for a while and they picked up just a point.
Chelsea continue to be a difficult side to predict from game to game. They are yet another club whose home form has been an issue of late with just 2 wins and 6 goals scored so far this season at Stamford Bridge. For a club that has lofty ambitions, that record will surely have to be improved against bottom placed Wolves.
These 2 played out a 7 goal thriller in the League Cup last week and if recent results are anything to go by then that wasn't a 1 off. The last 3 league meetings between these 2 have seen 18 goals scored!
2 sides who will be looking to bounce back from defeats to title contenders last week and establish themselves in the chasing pack.
Villa continue to struggle to find any real rhythm in attack but do face a Bournemouth side who are much softer on the road than they are at home. The Cherries xG against on their travels this season is 11.6 with only Burnley giving up more appealing chances in away games. Outside of a 1-0 at Spurs, they've conceded 12 goals away from home in their other 4 matches during 25/26.
That being said the Cherries have taken the lead in 4 of their 5 away matches this season and with Villa's pedestrian attack that might be enough to take something from this game.
Bournemouth's game plan will likely involve them giving up possession to Villa and looking to press them high up the pitch and transition quickly. The Cherries have the 5th lowest possession stats away from home this season.
However, Villa have only conceded 1 goal from open play at Villa Park this season so Bournemouth's route to goal might be better served by a set piece. Villa have conceded 3 times from set-plays at home this season with Bournemouth managing 4 set-piece goals on their travels during 25/26.
Away form is becoming an increasing issue for Newcastle who have now gone 8 Premier League games without tasting victory on the road with the Magpies having scored just 4 goals during that same period.
They kicked off the 25/26 Premier League season with 3 straight nil-nils away from home but have since lost on their last 2 visits to the South of England at Brighton and West Ham.
The good news is that their most recent games at Brentford have at least been far more entertaining both finishing 4-2 with the Bees winning by that margin last year and Newcastle getting the victory in 2023. In fact, Newcastle have never failed to score at least 2 goals on a Premier League visit to the Gtech although on current form that record looks to be under threat.
With 3 of their 4 victories this season coming at home, Brentford will fancy their chances of getting a win that would take them 4 points clear of Newcastle in the table.
Interestingly for a side playing at home, Brentford's most effective method of scoring at the Gtech this season has been on the break. Their 4 counter attack goals at home in 25/26 is double that of any other side. Will Newcastle fall into that trap or be happy to engage in some more dull football away from home?
Despite being separated by the M23 motorway, these 2 clubs consider this match to be a derby. Whether it is or not, what it is does represent is an opportunity for 2 sides with similar records this season to push themselves back into the European spots.
Since losing their unbeaten record that stretched back to Spring 2025, Palace have won just once and as I've suggested before, it's going to get increasingly difficult for the Eagles to balance their commitments across 3 competitions with a relatively small squad. To put it into context, Palace have 12 matches across October and November while Brighton just 8.
The strain is already starting to show, with Palace having lost their last 2 league games after playing in Europe. The play against AZ tonight!
Equally Palace have conceded 44% of their goals in the Premier League this season in the last 15 minutes of games, suggesting once again they are just running out of steam and resources on the bench to close matches out.
Against Brighton, that could prove a very decisive factor. The Seagulls like to leave it late. Over 3 quarters of their goals this season have come in the 2nd half, 41% in the final 15mins.
More generally, Brighton are scoring plenty of goals this season. 16 in their last 8 matches overall. They've also managed 18 goals in their last 10 away games in the Premier League, only blanking once in that same period. It all points towards a good bet on BTTS as has been the case on the last 8 occasions that these 2 have met.
2 'big clubs' pining for decades gone by and now involved in a relegation scrap at the bottom of the Premier League.
Forest at least showed some character to come from behind against United but what they also demonstrated the ongoing problems that they have in defence. This week, they take on a Leeds side that have scored just 3 times away from home this season with all 3 of those goals coming at bottom placed Wolves.
Leeds were rolled over with far too much ease at Brighton last weekend and as well as struggling to score on their travels they now also have the 2nd worst defensive record away from home of any team in the Premier League. Home form might define their season but you can't just be cannon fodder on the road.
In fact, if you were to go by the whoscored.com match ratings for these clubs so far this season then you have the 3rd worst performers in matches at home versus the worst performers in matches away from home this season. If you're a neutral, then perhaps schedule some time to spend with the Mrs or take the dog out for a walk on Sunday afternoon instead of tuning in for this one.
While those ratings are somewhat subjective, what is a fact is that both these sides have scored only 4 goals each this season from open play. Leeds have a further 4 from set-pieces (and a penalty) and might fancy their chances against a Forest side that has already conceded 9 set-piece goals this year.
Having just told you to switch off your telly then you might tempted to turn it back on for this one.
If Arsenal win at Sunderland then these sides will come into this match trailing the Gunners by 9 and 10 points respectively. The league is far from concluded but that is a big mountain to climb!
For me, City look like the better bet to be the title challengers and have somehow flown under the radar a bit despite their dominance of the league over the past decade.
Liverpool for their part put in a much more rounded performance to beat Real Madrid in midweek and they did do the double over City last year. In fact, City have failed to beat Liverpool in any of their last 4 meetings and have just 2 wins in their last 10 league encounters with the Merseyside club.
Since losing that match to Liverpool at the Etihad last season, City's home form has been near perfect with just their customary blip against Spurs the only time they've failed to win 3 points in their last 10 home matches, a period in which they've scored 26 goals.
On paper, this should be a really good game. These are the league's 2 highest scorers from open-play (18 and 16 goals respectively) while City have also looked very dangerous on the break and are playing a Liverpool side who have left themselves exposed at the back on more than one occasion this season.
On the flip side, it's common for these high profile matches to be a bit cagey. 5 of the last 6 Premier League matches between these 2 have finished with under 2.5 goals and half of their last 10 league encounters have ended as a draw.