Welcome back to Hive FPL blog for GW10 of the 25/26 season!

So it happened! Haaland blanked for GW9 as City once again struggled at Villa Park but who was able to take advantage of this?

The answer is no one really!

Of the top 50 teams in the Hive FPL 44 of them captained Haaland with 6 teams including top placed @emeka4 breaking from the norm. However, those 6 alternative captain picks also struggled.

@emeka4 alongside 2 other teams went with Semenyo who was only able to deliver a clean sheet bonus against Forest. The other 3 picks included Joao Pedro who continued his barren streak, Bruno Fernandes who delivered 2 DefCon points and Mo Salah whose late consolation at Brentford means that @olibennett was the only top 50 Hive FPL manager whose captain didn't blank in GW9!

GW9 was once again dominated by defenders. Micky Van de Ven delivered a 23 point week. The Dutch defender only managed 32 points in the entirety of last season. Matty Cash, a far steadier contributor in FPL, also had a good week with a goal against City.

It's then a question of the attack minded players who are starting to emerge as more consistent point scorers.

Bryan Mbeumo's net transfers fell in GW7 and GW8 after his initial 6 games for United yielded just 1 goal but he's rewarded those who stayed loyal to the former Brentford man with goal involvements in his last 3 matches.

In fact, Mbeumo's underlying stats had suggested that he was due a few more points. The United midfielder, like many of his teammates, had been getting into goal scoring positions and creating decent chances but not putting them away. His xGI for the season is now 4.9 and he's delivered 5 goal involvements demonstrating how these average ratings do tend to balance out over time.

The question then for FPL managers is who might be next in that regard? Here is a squad of players whose underlying stats suggest that they should have delivered more points than they currently have.

The Under-Performing Squad of 25/26 (to date)

It's perhaps no great surprise to see the defensive lines stacked with Wolves, Brighton and Forest players. After all, those teams have been conceding soft goals all season and I'd very much doubt that is about to change.

Yes, Forest have a new manager whose approach is likely to be far more defensive minded than their last one but as we demonstrated in last week's blog, the Tricky Trees issues at the back extend well into last season too and are therefore not going to be an easy fix for Sean Dyche. What's more, Forests defenders don't come cheap and as such there are lower risk as well as potentially better options around.

The 2 defenders of greater interest are Gudmundsson and Hill.

The later had a run of appearances in the Bournemouth team from GW3 to GW5 but has since made only 1 start and so at least for now needs to be kept on your shortlist for future options should injury or loss of form give him the opportunity to start regularly.

By contrast, Gudmundsson has been an ever present for Leeds this season and as well as being part of a defensive unit that looks harder to crack than some of the options in this squad, he and Leeds more generally are a threat down their left-hand side.

Leeds have favoured building attacks down their left side where Gudmundsson links well with Noah Okafor

In fact Leeds have started 41% of their attacks down the left-flank this season compared to 32% down the opposite side with only Nottingham Forest having a higher bias towards one side of the pitch in 25/26.

His xGI is 1.2 despite him not having added a goal involvement with 9 key passes and 2 big chances created suggesting that he's due to get on the board in that regard fairly soon.

Ultimately Gudmundsson represents a good budget pick at the back, particularly if you don't already have Joe Rodon in your squad. The Welshman is a great example of a player currently over-performing with 2 goals this season, doubling his career total!

In midfield, Bruno's under-performance is as a result of missing 2 penalties. Assuming that he is still taking pens and of course that he does start scoring them then that should balance out.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Q67RARSe5z4

Witrz, like Liverpool more generally, is struggling to get going this season. His xG per 90mins is still 0.35 which does show that's he been unfortunate not to break his Premier League goal and assist drought but it's still lower than any other midfield options around the £7.5 - £8.5mil mark.

We wait to see what impact Dyche can have on Gibbs-White who has offered just a single assist all season and that coming in the opening game versus Brentford where Forest were 3 up at half-time. It's all been downhill from then on for the England midfielder and his club.

Anthony Gordon's season was disrupted by him initially starting as a striker for Newcastle and looking threatening for a game and half until his needless red card against Liverpool saw him pick up a 3 match ban. In that time, he's looked good on international duty but like Newcastle more generally, hasn't quite hit the heights expected of them to date.

Newcastle's fixtures start to look good around the end of December so if Gordon can begin to turn his form around then he might be a good pick to replace a few of the popular midfield options who will go to AFCON.

Finally, Yeremy Pino is a player who is flying well under most managers radars. Brought in to replace the outgoing Eze, filling his shoes was never likely to be an easy task but Yeremy has started every game since GW2 suggesting that Glasner has faith in his abilities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGByjbScw5s

Capped by Spain at the age of 18, it's only an ACL injury a couple of years ago which has probably stopped him become a household name prior to that.

While he's not got a goal involvement in the league yet, he did score against Liverpool in midweek and he did create 2 goals in the Conference League in October. With 3 big chances and 2 big chances created in the league, it feels like only a matter of time before he starts acquiring more regular FPL points.

His price point puts him in amongst more popular options such as Reijnders who has not done much since GW1 and Caicedo who we wrote about in GW8's blog. The benefit of Yeremny? Well for starters he's only in 0.1% of teams so would be an automatic differential for almost every side and Palace have a nice run of games coming up

Palace's upcoming fixtures

Upfront we have Mateta who if his last 2 seasons are anything to go by is always a bit of a slow burner. In fact, this years return of 5 goals is far better than his pre-Christmas hauls in 23/24 and 24/25.

In 23/24 he didn't even score until GW16 and then went on to hit 16 goals in his next 22 EPL appearances. That included 9 in the final 6 games of that season which of course prompted the world and his wife to pick the big Frenchman for the start of 24/25.

However, he blanked in all but 3 games in the first half of last season before going on a run of 9 goal involvements in 8 matches which was only ended when Milwall's keeper attempted to decapitate him during a cup match - he'd probably picked Mateta for his FPL squad at the start of the season too!

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/R5m1c5TvHOE

Given his xGI is 8.3 so far this season, it does warrant the question as to what Mateta might be able to achieve if he hits another purple patch.

Beto is coping a fair amount of flak from both his own supporters and football fans more broadly. Is he the worst striker in the league? Probably not but he's certainly not a natural finisher underlined by his 1 goal from an xG of 3.6. Worth remembering that he did have a hot streak last season of 5 goals in 4 games so if he can get 1 in then it might yet open the flood gates for a few more.

The normally ultra-reliable Ollie Watkins has had a dreadful start to the season with just 1 goal from an unspectacular xG of 1.9 suggesting that while his finishing has not been as sharp as usual, he's also just not getting the chances he'd want.

Villa's overall 9 goals in the league (lowest of any of the top 12 clubs) is actually an over-achievement on their xG

In fact, Villa haven't recorded xG of higher than 1.4 in a single game so far this season and have scored more goals from outside the box (5) than they have from within it (4). Therefore, even with their form increasing, it doesn't look like Watkins is suddenly going to explode into life while Villa continue to labour in the final third.

Division 1

GW9 Results

GW10 Fixtures

Division 2

GW9 Results

GW10 Fixtures

GW10 Player Picks and Tips

High scorers go toe to toe as Haaland faces nemesis x 3

GW10 sees Spurs host Chelsea. As we pointed out in our round 10 preview, this is a fixture that historically provides goals and there is no reason to think it won't again this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNgjidqEa8o

Spurs and Chelsea are joint top scorers in the league this season with 17 goals each. While Spurs are hardly playing free flowing football and in particular struggling to dominate opposition at home, Chelsea come into this fixture with an average of 4 goals per game in their previous away fixtures in 25/26.

The difficultly is picking a scorer amongst the 2 sides! Richarlison and in particular Joao Pedro are popular picks but the Brazilians aren't getting goal involvements of late. In recent weeks, FPL managers have been better with the likes of Van de Ven, Paulinha, Caicedo and Fernandes. Will that trend continue in this game?

Also going head to head this weekend are the top point scorers in FPL 25/26 in Haaland and Semenyo. Again, FPL managers will hope for an open match in which both these assets can get goal involvements.

Despite this being a fixture that City have historically dominated, Haaland's record against the Cherries is poor by his standard with just 2 goals in 7 games against Bournemouth.

In fact, his next 3 opponents in the Premier League are the 3 sides he's struggled most against!

When I say 'struggled' I obviously mean 6 goals in 21 games proves he's actually human and not just a goal scoring robot.

Away defenders versus home attackers

Better value in the hunt for clean sheet bonuses would appear to come from sides traveling this weekend.

Arsenal will fancy shutting out a Burnley side that have arguably the least effective attack in the league while Newcastle who have conceded just 8 times this season, travel to West Ham who have just 7 goals in total this year and only 2 at home!

Both sides defenders will also fancy their chances from set-pieces. Arsenal because it's Arsenal have scored 56% of their goals this season from set-plays while Newcastle can attribute a third of their goals to corners and free-kicks and come up against a West Ham side who have already conceded 9 times from such situations.

Further forwards, managers might well be tempted by Palace at home to Brentford. The Bees have been impressive at home but less so away conceding 8 goals in visits to Forest, Sunderland and Fulham, 3 sides who you'd hardly label as carrying a consistent attacking threat. By contrast, Palace's xG this year is higher than any other side so Mateta and Sarr amongst others could well be set for a good week.

Another team playing at home this week that you'd back to get on the scoresheet are Brighton. They've scored in their last 8 league matches at the Amex with a total of 16 goals during that period including matches against City, Liverpool, Spurs and Newcastle (twice). Leeds are determined and well organised but have conceded in their last 6 and are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home on their Premier League return.

Danny Wellbeck with 5 goals in his last 4 games would be the obvious and very affordable choice while Minteh who is ranked 7th amongst midfielders this season for threat on the ICT ratings is also a viable option both this match for the foreseeable future with an upcoming run of fixtures that look favorable.

Brighton's coming fixtures

Bear in mind that Brighton's sole focus during this period is now the league after they were knocked out of the League Cup midweek.

Who are you picking for Game Week 10?