A Quick Recap of Our Game
A few months ago, we launched a riveting guessing game to celebrate the Bot Ban in Modern League on Splinterlands.
Participants were invited to predict the Average Daily Battles for the Modern and Wild Leagues over a seven-day period, beginning on July 25, 2023.
The stakes were high, with a CL Pack on the line for each league. Entrants had 24 hours to submit their single, unedited guess directly in the comments section of the original post.
The winner for each league would be the one who guessed closest to the actual average without exceeding it.
If you happened to miss it or need a quick refresher, you can view the original post here.
Firstly, my apologies for the delay in announcing the winners of the Modern Bot Ban Guessing Game. Time has a funny way of slipping through our fingers, doesn't it? Life got incredibly busy on my end, but let's get back to business.
Participants and Their Guesses
We had a stellar turnout for the contest, and I'd like to give a shout-out to everyone who took part. Here were your educated guesses:
| Participant | Modern Guess | Wild Guess |
|---|---|---|
| @olaf.gui | 50,069 | 420,000 |
| @tradyscho | 30,000 | 400,000 |
| @orrkis | 20,000 | 500,000 |
| @thepeoplesguild | 45,000 | 445,000 |
| @emeraldtiger | 60,000 | 430,000 |
| @dtam | 46,000 | 422,000 |
Thank you all for participating in the Modern Bot Ban Guessing Game!
The Actual 7-Day Averages
For those who are dying to know how close they were, here are the official 7-day averages from the period starting July 25, 2023:
- Modern League: 37,390
- Wild League: 472,944
And the Winners Are...
With those numbers in mind, the closest guesses without going over for each league are:
- For Modern League: @tradyscho came the closest with a guess of 30,000!
- For Wild League: @thepeoplesguild was just a hair off with 445,000!
Congratulations to @tradyscho and @thepeoplesguild - I have already sent your CL packs via Hive-Engine as of posting this.
Unveiling the Data: What We've Learned Together!
Your Guesses Unpacked: Expectation Meets Reality
Your guesses offer a compelling glimpse into community perceptions. A noteworthy pattern emerged in the Modern League guesses: a majority seemed to overestimate the battle counts. Did the Bot Ban hype inflate our expectations?
Conversely, for the Wild League, your guesses were impressively accurate—only one person overestimated. It appears the Wild League's dynamics are better grasped by our community.
Zooming Out: The Bot Ban's Three-Month Impact
Statistical Snapshot: Pre and Post Bot Ban
| Metric | Before Bot Ban | After Bot Ban | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. Daily Total Battles | 647,197 | 523,327 | Overall decline in battles |
| Avg. Daily Modern League | 326,394 | 28,768 | Significant drop |
| Avg. Daily Wild League | 308,738 | 483,942 | Significant increase |
- Modern's Downslide: The average battles in Modern have further dwindled, averaging around 25,000 recently. The trend chart below corroborates this decline post-Ban.
- The Wild Surge: In contrast, the Wild League is flourishing, with increasing battle counts as seen in the trend charts.
Implications for the Player Base
The Bot Ban has been well-received by many existing players in the Modern League, who appreciate competing solely against humans. Despite this positive reception, we haven't observed any noticeable growth in the player base or any improvement in player retention.
In essence, while current players enjoy a bot-free environment in the Modern League, this change has not attracted new players. Additionally, there has been a noticeable decrease in match liquidity in the Modern League, directly attributable to the Bot Ban.
It's also worth noting that card values across the entire Splinterlands ecosystem have declined. While it's difficult to attribute this solely to the Bot Ban, other factors such as broader market conditions or recent updates from Splinterlands could also be influencing this trend.
Conclusion: A Mixed Bag of Results
The Bot Ban offers a tale of two leagues—while it has purified the gaming experience in Modern, it hasn't been a game-changer in attracting and retaining new players. On the other hand, Wild continues to flourish, continuing to create a place where Splinterlands assets are put to work and hopefully helping to maintain their value and keep them from flooding the market.
As we continue to analyze and adapt, one thing is for sure: the ever-changing dynamics of Splinterlands continue to keep us on our toes.
While AI models were utilized to clean and polish the grammar and formatting of this article, please note that all ideas, insights, and analyses are the original contributions of the author.
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