One of my key lines in the sand have been crossed today, suggesting to me that the Bitcoin bull market could be over for this four year halving cycle. Price has dropped significantly since the ATH all time high of around $125k just recently. My line in the sand is seen in the chart below as the purple 300 day EMA.
As you can see, this line has held as support on the daily bitcoin chart since price first broke above it at the resumption of the uptrend back in February 2023. Price was then at the local low of around $16k. Once price broke above the 300 day EMA, it held all the way to the recent ATH last month.
Some exceptions are when price spent four days closing below the 300 daily EMA in early September 2024, and again for one day on 8 April 2025. Other than that, price has never closed below the 300 daily EMA for these almost three years. That's why this 300 EMA on the daily chart is where I draw my line in the sand to say the bull market could be about over.
Already we have reached the exact period of time, in months and days since the halving, and early October was already the technical statistical end of the bull market phase. As we see, Bitcoin price hit its ATH in early October, right on time, at around $125k. Was that the top?
Going by past timing of this Bitcoin four year halving cycle has worked for all the past four year cycles, but some are saying this time is different, that it's now an extended or right-translated cycle. Nobody knows for sure.
Price has peaked, admittedly rather lower than expected, but then it was like that at the last ATH in November 2021. NO one expected price to peak below $100k, but it only reached $70k before crashing to lose its usual 70% in value over the bear market.
The one bullish point is that back in the past price has spent a day or four on those two occasions below the 300 EMA before jumping back to the upside. Today's candle will close in about four hours, and if price remains below the $104k 300 daily EMA, then it will be the first such close since the one day close below in April, seven months ago. I will give price four days to get back up above the 300 EMA and if the bulls can't do it, then I will call it over for the next two years.
I hope I am wrong, but the analysis of the charts suggest that technically we are entering a bear market. RSI is at a local low near oversold on the daily chart, so it's very bearish momentum, yet also time for a reset and resuming of an uptrend. Many are expecting much more uptrend to come for the Bitcoin price, yet I am too bearish to buy what looks like the top right now.
The daily Bitcoin chart below shows more detail.
Here you can see how price has massively smashed the 300 day EMA which used to be support. That said, the big even psychological number of $100k is also a potential support.
However, you can clearly see the potential head and shoulders pattern in the chart above. This is a bearish pattern and the orange line indicating the length of the head suggests that the equal dip to the downside could take price to $97k. That is very bearish territory and the 300 might then turn to resistance. Let's wait and see what transpires over the next four days, or until the Friday close of the traditional market trading for the weekend, when trade volume dips.
If this is the end of the bull market for the next two years, then the traditional drop of 70% in price during a bear market could take the Bitcoin price from the ATH of $125k all the way back down to around $40k. This is just a technical estimated retrace, not counting fundamentals.
This is a critical time for Bitcoin now. We have already passed the time point since the halving in early 2024, where the peak or ATH is reached and the bull market cycle ends. That has come and gone, compared to past cycle lengths.
And now the second bearish indicator is this coming close below the 300 daily EMA. So if price continues to bounce back up from here and make new ATHs, I will be surprised. At most I give price until end of the year to make some sort of comeback, but by the end of Q4 I presume the bull market will be over.
In the past, like the 2021 and 2017 peaks, altcoins did well too, but this time around altcoins are rekt, some at all time lows while Bitcoin is at its ATH. So this time is already different and there has been no altcoin season at this market top for Bitcoin. So is it the top, or is this time different? Your guess is as good as mine.