For BTC to stay above its long term trend means closing above 7k. It usually has not breached that trend once recovered in its 4 yearly cycle. The effect of supply on its value shows up including the halving that occurs every 4 years.
However, it's current true Metcalfe law value is below 3k. A breach of that trend line is unlikely but if it does should bring it closer to its true metcalfe law value below 3k. Its Metcalfe law model was described here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1567422317300480
Its true value is currently so low because it is not finding increased usage at a sustainable growth rate that should match its long term trend. This is reflected in its low unique address trend. Its number of unique address is shown here: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-unique-addresses.