Today I return to write a post about my favorite blockchain game: **Splinterlands**. Among all the blockchain-based games I play and have invested in Splinterlands is the one I consider the most complete because besides being a strategy game that is fun to play it also offers the possibility to have fun with calculations and predictions because it has so many assets (NFTs and tokens) whose fluctuations in value can change one or more investment scenarios and consequently the financial strategies related to these scenarios can also change. The topic of this post of mine is **the study and evaluation of the various purchase cases of a Chaos Legion pack** whose market value on **Hive Engine** went in a few days from a value of **$1.83** (Nov. 29, 2022) to a current value of **$1.478** (Lowest Ask: Dec. 3, 2022).  **Why this decrease in value in just a few days?** We are still in Bear Market, but the reason for this decrease in value is perhaps because of the **[Splinterlands Chaos Legion & Tower Defense Holiday Deals 2022](https://ecency.com/splinterlands/@splinterlands/splinterlands-chaos-legion-and-tower-defense-holiday-deals-2022)** promotion that started just on November 29, 2022. Splinterlands has offered incentives to those who will buy large quantities of Chaos Legion packs during the period **November 29-December 21, 2022** (until 5:00 PM EST), and it is likely that many large buyers will have put some packs on sale or those who were buying packs from Hive Engine preferred to participate in the promotion. One way or another, the current price of Chaos Legion packs on Hive Engine is very "inviting" In the following two images you can see all the **requirements** to participate in the **Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo** and all the **benefits** obtainable based on the amount of packs purchased.   _{Screenshots from https://peakd.com/@splinterlands/splinterlands-chaos-legion-and-tower-defense-holiday-deals-2022} The entry level to participate in the promotion is the **bronze level** which requires an investment of **$10000** in Crypto/Fiat or an investment of **10 MILLION** **DEC** tokens. Today December 2, 2022 **1000 DEC** tokens** are worth **$0.733266** and therefore **for those who want to participate in the promotion it is absolutely advisable to use DEC tokens as a payment method** because the **achievable savings** is **26.67%** compared to other payment methods.  Not everyone has a budget of $10000 or DEC 10 million, but even small investors can participate through **buying pools**. Today I had some fun doing some calculations and **analyzed the various cases of buying Chaos Legion packs** considering all possible options: - purchase from the **shop** of Splinterlands - purchase via the **Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo** - purchase from **Hive Engine** For each purchase option I calculated the **cost per pack** in terms of **dollars**.  ## 1st Purchase Case: Shop at Splinterlands  From the **Shop** section of the Splinterlands website, you can purchase a pack of Chaos Legion cards with **4000 credits** or with **4000 DEC**.  Those who purchase a Chaos Legion card pack with **credits** spend **4$**. Those who purchase a pack of Chaos Legion cards with **DEC** spend less: **2.9331$**  Those who purchase a Chaos Legion pack from the Shop section of Splinterlands have **2 benefits**: - can participate in the last **4 Chaos Legion airdrops**.  - will receive **one promo card for each pack purchased** but **only until December 21, 2022 (5:00 PM EST)** Splinterlands has not yet revealed what the promo card will be, so it is not possible to make predictions and assessments about its future market value, which will depend - on **game statistics** (usefulness in battle) - on the **number of cards in circulation** I have summarized in tabular form all the benefits obtainable from the purchase of 1 Chaos Legion pack from the Shop section of Splinterlands and also calculated the percentages of probability of obtaining a card from the airdrops for each pack purchased.  I also tried to calculate **the estimated monetary value of the probability of receiving a card from the next 4 airdrops** and to do this calculation I based it on the current market value of the last card distributed by the tenth airdrop: **Conqueror Jacek ($16.45)**.  Today, December 3, the probabilities linked to airdrops 11-12-13-14 have a total estimated value of **$0.1034**  If I add to this value the market value of the least expensive Promo card on the Splinterlands market (Goblin Chef - $0.26) I can try to calculate the **estimated total cost of a pack of Chaos Legion cards purchased from the Splinterlands Shop** which takes into consideration a possible value of the benefits: **2.5697$** (2.9331$ - 0.1034$ - 0.26$)   ## 2nd Purchase Case: Bronze Level Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo  Those who have **10 million** of **DEC** available can participate in the Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo and will receive the **benefits** of the **Bronze Level**. In this case, the cost per pack is **$2.1328** = 2857.1429 DEC  As in the case of buying a Chaos Legion pack from the Splinterlands site, I tried to **calculate an estimated value for each benefit obtainable in the Bronze level** of the promotion. To calculate the total estimated value of 3500 Promo Cards I considered the value of Goblin Chef which is the cheapest promo card for sale on the market = $0.26. To calculate the total estimated value of cards receivable from airdrops I considered: - the probability of receiving a guaranteed card from each airdrop based on the number of packs purchased, a probability that decreases in subsequent airdrops. - The market value of Conqueror Jacek (card distributed in the tenth airdrop). As you can see from the data in the table below the **estimated total value of benefits** obtainable in the bronze level is **$1271.95**.  Considering the calculation of the estimated value of benefits, the cost per package drops from $2,1320 to $1,7694.  If I compare the cost per pack with the **estimated value of a pack of cards** and if I then compare with the cost per pack on Hive Engine (source: https://www.splintercards.com/index.html) I can arrive at interesting valuations.  Buying a pack of cards through the Chaos Legion Bulk Package promotion (Bronze level) produces a **negative estimated profit of -$0.0094 per pack** and therefore does not seem like a good choice at the moment. Buying a package from Hive Engine is much cheaper because the price on the market is very low ($1.47) and the **estimated profit** is **+$0.29 per pack**.   ## 3rd Purchase Case: Level Silver Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo  Those who have **24.8 million** of **DEC** available can participate in the Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo and will receive the benefits of the **silver level**. In this case the cost per pack is the same as the previous case: **$2.1328** = 2857.1429 DEC  What changes between Bronze and Silver level are the **benefits** which increase in number. The Silver level has 2 more benefits than the Bronze level: - **2 Runes** (0.2699 ETH x 2 = **348.77$**) - **Free L10 Guild Hall** (Total value: **2710000 DEC**) As you can see from the data in the table below, the total estimated value of benefits obtainable with the silver level is according to my calculations: **5490.36$**.  Considering the estimated value of benefits the **estimated cost per pack** drops from $2,1320 to **$1,5003**. Comparing the cost per pack with the estimated value of a pack of cards produces a **positive estimated profit** instead of the negative value I calculated for the Bronze level: **+0.2695$**. So buying a Chaos Legion pack via the Silver level promotion is a positive expected profit choice but buying a pack from Hive Engine is still the better choice but the difference between the two costs is really minimal: **-0.0303$**.  Those participating in a purchasing pool, however, need not consider the value of the **Free L10 Guild Hall** benefit and will have a per-pack cost of $1.7292 that will produce better results than the Bronze level but very close in value.   ## 4th Purchase Case: Gold Level Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo  Those who have **50 million** of **DEC** available can participate in the Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo and will receive the benefits of the **Gold Level**. In this case, the **cost per package** without considering the value of benefits is lower than the previous case: **$1.9644** Vs $2.1328.  The Gold level has more benefits than the Silver level including: - **5 Runs** (0.2699 ETH x 2 = **1743.85$**) - 3 more Runs - **extra 1500 CL packs** As you can see from the data in the table below the **estimated total value of benefits** obtainable with the Gold level is: **10635.88$**.  Considering the estimated value of benefits, the cost per pack drops from $1.9644 to **$1.4046**. Comparing the cost per pack with the estimated value of a card pack yields a much higher **positive estimated profit** per pack than at the Silver level: **+0.3554$** Vs +0.2597$. **Buying a pack from Hive Engine is no longer the best choice!**  Those participating in a purchase pool need not consider the value of the Free L10 Guild Hall benefit and will have a cost per pack of **$1.5092** which will produce the following results.   ## 5th Purchase Case: Diamond Level Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo  Those who have **100 million** of **DEC** available can participate in the Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo and will receive the benefits of the **Diamond Level**. In this case the **cost per package** without considering the value of benefits is lower than the previous case: **$1.9140** Vs $1.9644.  The Diamond level has more benefits than the Gold level including: - 12 Runs (0.2699 ETH x 2 = $1743.85) - 7 more Runs As you can see from the data in the table below, the total estimated value of benefits obtainable with the Diamond level is: **20345.57$**.  Considering the estimated value of benefits, the **cost per pack** drops from $1.4046 to **$1.3924**. Comparing the cost per pack with the estimated value of a card pack yields a **positive estimated profit** that is higher than at the Gold level even if only slightly: **+0.3676$** Vs +0.3554$. Again, buying a Chaos Legion pack through the current promotion is the best choice!  Those who participate in a **purchase pool** need not consider the value of the Free L10 Guild Hall benefit and will have a cost per pack of **$1.4433** which will produce the following results.  **Thus, it is the Diamond level that is the goal to be reached for those participating in a purchasing pool** because it is the level where the of cost of a pack purchased on Hive Engine is higher than the cost of a pack purchased through the promotion at the Diamond level.  ## 6th Purchase Case: Champion Level Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo  Those who have **150 million** of **DEC** available can participate in the Chaos Legion Bulk Package Promo and will receive the benefits of the **Champion level**. In this case, the cost per package without considering the value of the benefits is lower than the previous case: **$1.8662** Vs $1.9140.  The Champion level has more benefits than the Diamond level including: - **18 Runs** (0.2699 ETH x 18 = **6277.86$**) - 5 more Runs As you can see from the data in the table below the **estimated total value of benefits** obtainable with the Diamond level is: **30069.90$**.  Considering the estimated value of benefits the **cost per pack** drops from $1.3924 to **$1.3650**. Comparing the cost per pack with the estimated value of a pack of cards yields a **positive estimated profit** that is higher than the Diamond level even if only slightly: **+0.3950$** Vs +0.3676$. ![image.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/libertycryp