From @balajis:
This is the single best long run measure of food inflation. And it’s gone vertical.
The original post lays out the logic. Campbell’s No. 1 can hasn’t changed. For more than 100 years, same thing. Same ingredients, same volume. So it’s a great benchmark. And it reveals rapid inflation. Especially since 2020. https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-price-history-of-campbells-tomato.html?m=1
Counterarguments: 1) Real prices should be flat or declining due to tech progress. Not increasing. 2) Flat for a year after rising so fast isn’t a great victory.
Also: the rate hikes that arguably flattened prices inarguably boosted debt payments. Which is partly why rates just got cut. So let’s see what happens to prices next.
Source: https://x.com/balajis/status/1871063527785689421