The Latin American Report # 594

@limonta · 2025-09-09 22:45 · Deep Dives

Argentine President Javier Milei suffered a severe setback this past Sunday in the legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires, whose electoral weight represents a significant portion of the citizenry and therefore serves as a crucial gauge for the national legislative elections scheduled for next October. That is, the important thing is not what winning or losing means in terms of administrative power at the local/state level, but the signals it sends for the very next electoral showdown; it is understood as a sort of referendum on the executive's performance, and in that sense, many experts have wiped the floor with the image and current popularity of the conservative leader.

While some advantage was foreseen for a Peronism that refuses to die, the numbers were much more positive for this historic political force now in the opposition, although everything indicates that more than its own campaign or political performance in general, it is the protest vote that is propelling it today. La Libertad Avanza obtained just over three out of every ten votes on Sunday, while the Justicialist Party secured nearly half. The explanations for why the electorate is punishing Milei vary from the failure of macroeconomic dynamics to land in the food table, the dangerous overflight of corruption over the Pink House itself, or the controversial communication policy inspired by Milei, which opens fire on friends and foes alike.

All this, again, without discounting the relevance of the Peronist campaign setup, which even furious journalists who kneel in allegiance to Milei, like Esteban Trebucq, acknowledged in the person of Axel Kicillof, at odds with CFK, his former mentor. The output could also be explained by those things that politics has, which, like the chart of a memecoin, "self-corrects": that is, one way or another, people don't seem to want to invest all the power in the last electoral winner, and so they reduce its juice at the mid-term.

"We suffered a setback, and we must accept it responsibly," Milei said after the results were known, while assuring that "[there] will be no retreat in government policy." But surely he will change something or quite a bit in the government. "Did you see that, Milei? [...] Get out of your bubble, brother. ... Things are getting heavy," said CFK, the convicted former president, in a mocking tone. "While not the main national election in October, it is nonetheless a wake-up call for the government, and how it reacts will be crucial to understanding the evolving political map," said a consultant quoted by AP. For Milei, it is key to achieve greater muscle in Congress, so that his orthodox agenda of cuts and reduction of the state can flow more freely, with fewer obstacles.

The surprising blow that the electorate dealt to the ruling party has bewildered the internal market, which was already showing doubts based on more and previous concerning data. "Bonds and stocks will face weeks of weakness until there is greater clarity on the economic-financial situation," said a firm whose report was covered by EFE. "The question is whether the Government will be able to readjust the situation, both at the political level and at the level of containing macro pressures, and whether it can or cannot reverse the current image of defeat for the national elections in October. The coming weeks will be key in every aspect, and investor caution should prevail," said the chief economist of the SBS group.

Source

Regional news brief

  • Nearly 96% of primary healthcare institutions in Peru are in poor condition, according to a report dated Monday from the Lima-based NGO. "The precariousness in infrastructure, equipment, and staff affects basic care, generates saturated hospitals, and limits timely access to healthcare," it warned, also pointing to signs of corruption or mismanagement of funds for hospital maintenance.

  • The bloody struggle within the Sinaloa Cartel, which broke out following the chaotic arrival in the United States of the historic drug lord "El Mayo" Zambada, allegedly kidnapped by a son of his former compadre "El Chapo" Guzmán, has reached its one-year mark. The result is nearly 1,830 intentional homicides and some 2,390 disappearances. "We have lived a year in which, if we make an analogy, it is as if it were raining every day," a security activist told EFE, using an analogy where each raindrop equals a corpse.

  • A nice update on the Bolsonaro case from AP 👇. Also today, Flávio Bolsonaro, a Brazilian senator and son of the former president, accused Judge Alexandre de Moraes of manipulating documents as part of the evidence process.

This is all for today’s report.

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