A little add on to my post from yesterday. I completed running the script and turns out I made a few more wrong assumptions that may get in the way of the Kanarie bot implementation.
Here is the overview of the results from the script in terms of numbers of exposed P2PKH adresses. As noted before, Segwit and Taproot adresses were not included in this run. The rows represent the year of the last transaction involving the address. The columns reprecent the lower bound of the order of magnitude of the amount of bitcoin tied to a single address.
| 10,000+ | 1,000+ | 100+ | 10.0+ | 1.0+ | 0.1+ | 0.01+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 1 | ||||||
| 2010 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 71 | ||
| 2011 | 182 | 1,363 | 1,426 | 1,455 | |||
| 2012 | 120 | 1,058 | 3,010 | 3,033 | |||
| 2013 | 3 | 165 | 1,954 | 7,197 | 15,258 | ||
| 2014 | 1 | 181 | 2,231 | 11,753 | 33,516 | ||
| 2015 | 178 | 2,294 | 16,475 | 38,256 | |||
| 2016 | 1 | 128 | 2,123 | 25,930 | 47,869 | ||
| 2017 | 287 | 2,610 | 13,488 | 37,965 | |||
| 2018 | 1 | 93 | 1,367 | 7,459 | 21,837 | ||
| 2019 | 2 | 66 | 874 | 5,637 | 16,008 | ||
| 2020 | 72 | 350 | 1,075 | 5,456 | 15,159 | ||
| 2021 | 52 | 88 | 463 | 2,048 | 9,090 | 20,518 | |
| 2022 | 2 | 20 | 120 | 1,260 | 4,589 | 11,317 | |
| 2023 | 12 | 237 | 1,161 | 4,661 | 4,433 | 14,903 | |
| 2024 | 1 | 28 | 250 | 1,068 | 4,789 | 14,470 | 56,492 |
| 2025 | 18 | 95 | 337 | 1,274 | 2,986 | 12,229 | 75,996 |
While this already gives insights, I made a second overview of the data but now using the total amount of bitcoin currently tied to each of the sets of addresses. For reference, the total amount of bitcoin tied to P2PKH is currently 8,428,814, and 1,323,824 of that is tied to adresses with exposed public keys that could potentialy be targeted by a quantum computing attack in the future. That is 15.7% of P2PKH address tied bitcoin.
| 10,000+ | 1,000+ | 100+ | 10.0+ | 1.0+ | 0.1+ | 0.01+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 17.49 | ||||||
| 2010 | 100.00 | 120.03 | 72.93 | 10.76 | 2.89 | ||
| 2011 | 2,934.47 | 4,117.77 | 513,13 | 52.89 | |||
| 2012 | 2,028.38 | 2,961.62 | 1,086.72 | 110.94 | |||
| 2013 | 325.57 | 2,807.95 | 5,412.39 | 2,395.57 | 571.00 | ||
| 2014 | 123.34 | 2,972.64 | 5,954.47 | 3,488.76 | 1,165.89 | ||
| 2015 | 2,870.81 | 6,364.16 | 4,771.13 | 1,314.22 | |||
| 2016 | 109.00 | 2,218.65 | 4,936.82 | 7,420.03 | 1,639.22 | ||
| 2017 | 4,938.55 | 7,194.37 | 4,005.09 | 1,252.54 | |||
| 2018 | 100.00 | 1,445.25 | 3,751.84 | 2,238.82 | 697.09 | ||
| 2019 | 355.85 | 994.18 | 2,346.00 | 1,591.97 | 497.06 | ||
| 2020 | 11,483.18 | 10,577.74 | 2,764.18 | 1,721.95 | 491.04 | ||
| 2021 | 52,703.53 | 29,903.53 | 14,151.91 | 5,161.91 | 3,049.78 | 681.61 | |
| 2022 | 2,081.85 | 6,752.05 | 2,874.24 | 3,188.99 | 1,555.19 | 371.79 | |
| 2023 | 13,927.00 | 63,847.40 | 38,516.72 | 12,888.37 | 1,509.10 | 592.10 | |
| 2024 | 14.519.94 | 87,679.49 | 66,933.65 | 30,543.09 | 13,579.04 | 4,773.25 | 1,730.35 |
| 2025 | 308,081.13 | 245,899.93 | 105,650.18 | 42,361.62 | 10,043.77 | 3,033.90 | 2,456.69 |
One thing that stnds out is that most vulnerable funds are actually tied to quite recently used P2PKH adresses, what partially invalidates my strategy of looking just at transactions on adresses that have been dormant since before 2020. This again means that I need to update the script to record every exposed address, not just the dormant adresses I did so far. I can however start at some scripts using the script output I have right now.
I'm very much interested in seeing the 19 adresses in the 10,000+ bitcoin column. Unfortunately right now I can't see which adresses they are untill I've ran the script again.