Hi Everyone,
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In 2022, I wrote several posts about war. The situation was bad then. It is even worse now. According to the Copenhagen Peace Report 2025, the world is experiencing the highest number of active military conflicts since World War 2 (TVP World).
The Global Peace Index (GPI) indicates a continuous decline in peace. This is propelled by the consistently increasing number of conflict deaths, conflicts fought, and the intensity of these conflicts. See Figure 1 for GPI and Figure 2 for conflict indicators.
Figure 1: GPI Overall Trend and Year-on-Year Percentage Change (2008-2023)
Figure 2: Trends in Key Ongoing Conflict Indicators (2008-2024)
Source: Global Peace Index
The two most concerning wars are the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas/Gaza war. The Russia-Ukraine war is deeply concerning because Russia is a military superpower and the Ukrainian military are being strongly supported by NATO. A direct conflict between Russia and NATO could lead to World War 3. The Israel-Hamas/Gaza war might be even more concerning. The scale of the war is considerably smaller, but the potential for widespread escalation is huge. The outcome of this could be devastating for both Israel and Palestine. There is also a much bigger and larger plan in action, which involves the USA and Europe.
Russia-Ukraine War
In 2022, I wrote several detailed posts about the Russia-Ukraine war. In my first post, Russia Invades Ukraine: What is going on?, I discussed the likely reasons for the war and the possible objectives for both sides.
In my next two posts, Russia-Ukraine War 2022: Winners and Losers (Part One: Losers) and Russia-Ukraine War 2022: Winners and Losers (Part Two: Winners), I discussed the many likely losers and winners from this war. The losers are very easy to identify. In short, they are the people of Europe. The people fighting and dying in the war. The civilians in Ukraine who lose their homes and property and even their lives. The people in Europe who suffer because of the sanctions.
The predictions of the post have mostly come true.
The winners are a little less obvious. Some of these winners include oil companies, the military-industrial complex, the banks, and the countries that have avoided the sanctions war.
In my fourth post, Are we heading for World War 3?, I revisit the start of the original civil war, which began with a colour revolution and coup facilitated by the West. I discuss the wide division in Ukrainian society between pro-West Ukrainians in West Ukraine and pro-Russian Ukrainians in East Ukraine. I discuss the escalations within the first year of the broader war and my opinions about if the war will escalate into World War 3. I discuss the high likelihood the war would continue until Donald Trump became president of the US again.
Donald Trump has been president since January 2025, and sadly, the war rages on. An important part of Donald Trump’s election campaign was to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. He claimed it would be easy to do so. In theory, he should have been correct. Ukraine is now little more than a vassal state to the West. Donald Trump is supposed to be the leader of the West (i.e., leader of the free world). In practice, it is a little more difficult.
As president of the US, Donald Trump is still only the face of the Establishment (see my post, Faces for the Faceless). He might have been given a considerably longer leash than most other leaders, but he still would not be allowed to push back against the agenda. It appears that the continuation of the Ukraine-Russia war is still an important part of the agenda, which the Western Establishment are not ready to move on from yet.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown a strong desire to end the war by remaining open to negotiations. His core demands have remained the same for years. These include:
- Neutrality of Ukraine (i.e., no NATO membership and demilitarisation)
- Recognition of the regions of Crimea, Sevastopol, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson as Russian
- Protection of ethnic Russians and Russian culture in Ukraine (e.g., denazification of Ukraine)
- Lifting of sanctions and return of illegally seized assets.
Source: Newsweek
Considering Russia’s military dominance, these demands should appear reasonable. However, they have remained unacceptable to Ukraine’s Western backers. They continue to insist that Russia return all captured land and that Ukraine come under the protection of the West. They also insist on an immediate ceasefire prior to even attempting to negotiate with Russia (NATO). Russia refuses an immediate ceasefire and claims they would rather negotiate a permanent peace based around the core issues that caused the war (Institute for the Study of War). Therefore, peace talks stall before they can even begin.
In stark contrast to the Western leaders and Ukraine’s puppet leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people strongly desire peace and an end to the war. This desire continues to grow stronger; see Figure 3 below.
Figure 3: Which of the following statements about the war with Russia comes closest to your personal views?
Note 1: The trend represents data aggregated from multiple surveys conducted each year in Ukraine. Data were aggregated to increase robustness and differ slightly from previously published estimates for 2022 and 2023.
Note 2: In 2023, 2024 and 2025, some occupied territories with entrenched Russian control were excluded due to lack of coverage by Ukrainian mobile operators. The exclusion represents approximately 10% to 13% of the population.
Source: Gallup
Considering the lack of advancement of peace talks because of the unwillingness of the West to negotiate, it is impossible to truly assess Vladimir Putin’s actual desire for peace. I believe it is unlikely Vladimir Putin wants to end the war now. The war has strong support from the Russian public, and this support appears to be growing; see Figure 4 below.
Figure 4: Do you personally support or not support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine?
Source: Statista
It is also likely that the Russian leadership would like to capture Odessa. Russia has strong historical connections with Odessa. Capturing Odessa would also leave Ukraine landlocked and significantly weakened economically and militarily. The people of Odessa are likely to be accepting of Russian rule, considering that the majority of the people have voted for pro-Russian candidates in the past (Wikipedia). However, I believe it is unlikely that Russia will venture too far west, as their rule would be strongly rejected.
If the war reaches a military solution, Russia will mostly control the South and East. This is roughly the same outcome that I predicted in my 2022 post, Russia Invades Ukraine: What is going on?. What I did not account for back in 2022 was the West Establishment’s obsession with this war.
The West has provided Ukraine with over $100 billion worth of weapons since the start of the war (The Kyiv Independent). This obsession could lead to direct military intervention by the West (i.e., NATO). Eventually, Ukraine will reach a point where it can no longer continue the war (i.e., its nation will be destroyed). When this time comes, will the Western Establishments be able to let this war go? It is likely they will not. On this basis, European nations will be in direct conflict with Russia. The combined population of European NATO countries is significantly greater than that of Russia. This could lead to decades of war.
Why are the Western Establishment/s so obsessed with Russia? I believe there are three possible reasons.
The Western Establishment wants to control Russia because of its vast resources. Russia has by far the largest landmass of any country in the world. This land is rich in resources. Western businesses would like to have unfettered access to these resources. This could be done through direct control over Russia or by installing a puppet leader who would give them this access. I consider this unlikely, as the Russian people would strongly oppose Western or pro-Western leadership. However, it is possible that the Western Establishment believes its propaganda is capable of swaying Russian opinion.
The Western Establishment wants a forever war with Russia and its allies. Russia has a large, powerful military that is extremely difficult to defeat on its home soil. NATO has an even larger military and a far greater population base. It could attack Russia indefinitely. This scenario benefits the elites on both sides. A forever war would be a powerful control mechanism. Governments would be able to implement almost any policy it wants in the name of defence. In doing so, the masses will be suppressed and the elites will become richer. Forever wars were described in the George Orwell book ‘1984’.
The Western Establishment wants to destroy the European countries and possibly even the USA. The West is facing numerous different crises. A prolonged war would deepen these crises and could eventually lead to the collapse of countries. These countries could become rolled into one United State of Europe (a more formal and authoritarian replacement for the current European Union). This would lead to the centralisation of power and enable the elite’s greater control. Democracy as we know it would no longer exist. However, the newly developed culture from mass immigration would not necessarily require it.
It is also possible that the goal is a mixture of two or three of the above goals. All of which is catastrophically bad for most Europeans, which would also include Russians.
Israel-Hamas/Gaza War
For the most part, the majority of the fighting has been confined to the Gaza Strip, which is only about 365km2. Despite what seems like a limited war, it is garnering an enormous amount of attention from the rest of the world.
NGO-sponsored (e.g., Open Society) ‘pro-Palestine’/anti-Israel protests have occurred across Europe and the USA almost every week for two years; some of these protests have attracted hundreds of thousands of people.
Almost all mainstream media in Europe and the USA have consistently featured the war on an almost daily basis (Grok 4.0).
Since the October 7 Hamas attack, the United Nations Security Council has met over 80 times regarding the war. (Grok 4.0).
Why is this war receiving so much attention, and why might it be the most significant current conflict in the world?
In December 2023, in three posts of my ‘Global Collapse’ series, I discussed at length the Israel-Hamas/Gaza war. In Part 3, I discussed the start of the war and the world’s response to it. In Part 4, I discussed the history between the Palestinians and the Israelis from the creation of modern-day Israel. In Part 5A, I discuss how the war might progress and expand, the impact on the West, and a few popular conspiracy theories.
Almost two years have passed since I wrote those posts. The war has reached a ceasefire. Donald Trump claims his 20-point peace plan has ended the war. However, as of October 29, phase one is not even fully completed yet.
So far, Hamas has returned all remaining living hostages, the Israel Defence Force (IDF) has retreated from Gaza City to an agreed position (yellow line), which gives them control over roughly half of Gaza, and Israel has released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. However, Hamas has not returned all the remaining bodies of dead hostages, and Israel has placed restrictions on the amount of aid entering Gaza (NPR).
Phase 2 of negotiations has been reported to be underway. This phase focuses on Hamas demilitarisation, destruction of Hamas tunnels/infrastructure and weapon production facilities, amnesty for compliant Hamas members, and deployment of an international stabilisation force (Pravada USA). This phase will be difficult to implement.
Hamas rejects full disarmament and the destruction of their network of tunnels. They demand a full and permanent withdrawal of the IDF from all Gazan territories, security guarantees from Arab or UN-backed forces from Qatar, Turkey, or Egypt, immediate unrestricted aid for rebuilding, and a pathway to a Palestinian state, which includes the West Bank. If these conditions are met, they will agree to gradually disarm to a Palestinian-led army (Grok 4.0).
The most likely outcome is a break of negotiations during Phase 2, which will likely lead to the continuation of the war. How this breakdown occurs is important. Hamas will want to prolong negotiations. A long ceasefire is to their advantage; they can reorganise and rearm. Israel could feel compelled to remain patient until the US Government (Donald Trump) gives them clearance to continue the war. To give such authority to another nation, even a close ‘ally’, should be considered unacceptable. However, resuming the conflict without US support would likely lead to close to complete global isolation and a possible green light to the nations that seek to destroy Israel.
The Conspiracy (Greater Israel)
There have been plenty of conspiracy theories regarding the war. One of the most popular conspiracy theories is the ‘Greater Israel’ project. The argument is that October 7 was a false flag event aimed at justifying Israel’s invasion and capturing of Gaza. This would lead to the expelling and/or massacring of the Gazans. This would be followed by the annexation of the West Bank/Judea and Samaria and eventually taking Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, parts of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. See the map in Figure 5.
Figure 5: Map of Greater Israel Accredited to Theodor Herzl
Source: Middle East Eye
This conspiracy theory has been reinforced by:
- the slow progress of the investigation into the events and failures that occurred on October 7 (Jerusalem Post)
- accusations of the IDF carrying out the Hannibal Directive (permission to attack enemies holding hostages, thus putting the hostages’ lives in danger) on October 7 (ABC News)
- the mainstream media reports of collective punishment, mass starvation, and genocide in Gaza
- the frequent condemnation of Israel’s action by most countries on the United Nations Security Council
- a United Nation’s report claiming Israel is committing genocide in Gaza (United Nations)
- the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) cases against Israel and Israeli leaders (Arab Center Washington DC)
Despite what many might consider strong evidence for the ‘Greater Israel’ conspiracy, there are several holes in the theory. Israel has not captured any new land from other states since the Six-Day War in 1967. Since then, it has returned land to Egypt (Sinai Peninsula in 1982) (Center for Israel Education), it has allowed partial Palestinian governance in the West Bank and Gaza (1990s Oslo Accords (Britannica)), and it has allowed full internal Palestinian control of Gaza from 2005 (Britannica).
The number of deaths within the two years of war does not threaten to wipe out a significant portion of the Gazan people (population of over two million people). According to the United Nations, as of October 22, approximately 68,000 Palestinians have been killed. This does not break down civilian and militant deaths. The United Nations are using figures reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health (run by Hamas). According to The Guardian, leaked data from the IDF reveals a civilian death rate of 83%, which is around 5 civilian deaths to 1 combatant. A similar civilian death rate was reported for the Iraq War (Jewish News Syndicate). To the contrary, there are also reports that the civilian death rate could be somewhere between 50% and 66% ([Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-genocide-claim-