Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
BTC has been on a good run
That statement might be surprising for some, but overall it has performed quite well over the last years. Climbing all the way from 15k to around $124k has been a good performance - the only thing "missing" now is the last part of the parabolic run to the top. The bears are of course already claiming that "this was it", but that seems a bit hasty considering the historical strong performance at the end of the cycle, which is in Q4 of 2025 or Q1 of 2026. Most indicators are also not suggesting a top yet, in fact BTC almost seems like it still has a "long" way to go. I am cautious in proclaiming that it will make an ATH in the middle of 2026, but I definitely think it could be an option for ALTs. In other words, the larger peak for BTC in Q4/Q1 and a smaller one in Q3 of 2026 (while heading into the bear market) - ALTs on the other hand could have the larger peak in this second time frame. So far the theory at least...
TA
Back in 2023 I gave this very successful prediction for BTC (it actually might be the best I have made so far - although it doesn't seem to remarkable, since it is simply based on the 4 year cycle):
When we compare it to the current price action we can see how well BTC has "behaved":
It's essentially a perfect prediction, although the last part is still missing: a much stronger and unsustainable move to the top for the final few months of the cycle. Since we only have around 4-6 months (at best) for this movement to occur, we are a bit late now.
Overall I am expecting something like this:
But you can see that price is already struggling to follow the path outlined. $300k still seems reasonable and possible - it's "only" a 166% increase after all. It would be extremely awkward if BTC wouldn't go into parabolic mode at some point in the coming months! But it is clear that the move needs to happen now.
The less exciting scenario is for price to go to the red resistance at around $180k, which is a price I have seen thrown around recently. It would also not fit into the pattern that we have seen for all other past cycles. If so, it could finally mean a "less" volatile market in which a bear market could perhaps only see declines of around 50-60% instead of 80-90% as well. It will be interesting to see how the ALT market would evolve in such a new climate.
Conclusion
So far on track, mostly. I would give the bullish scenario and an ATH somewhere around 300k a 60-80% chance of happening. A second but smaller peak in mid 2026 also seems likely, and could be a late chance for ALTs to shine.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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