How far away is the Cycle Top?
In February I last looked at the PI-Cycle Indicator. It has a pretty good track record at predicting the top for BTC. Interestingly, since the last post nothing much has changed in terms of coming close to a top. The width of the two bands is still as far apart as last time. Here is a chart from back then; the width - compared to the previous cycles - suggested a top between August 2025 and April 2026. Note: the true peak for the last cycle was at the end of 2021 and not in Q2 of 2021 (so the indicator was a bit off there).
https://images.hive.blog/0x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/tobetada/23u6X12PcCcjkAzLgsSd8XDGfFVCb1vTXLrhAdDBXtVpm56iop2MH9de6kMDmX85fHtqE.png
Well, now almost in August the indicator is nowhere near a top. In fact, the band has widened. Here is an updated chart. The black line takes the distance within the current cycle and compares it to the previous ones.
In other words, we are still at the same point as in Q1. In 2020 BTC made a very quick rally to ATHs and I can't imagine that price could rise faster as back then. So that would give us at least another 6 months for the top. In 2017 it took around a full year to get to the top which would be in the middle of 2026. Interestingly, I have been favoring such a scenario: a BTC ATH and cycle top around 2025/2026 and then another peak (but lower high) in summer 2026. This second peak could then potentially be the peak for ALT coins (since a peak for ALTs at the end of this year seems premature).
If so, I would expect a peak for BTC at around January 2026 and a peak for ALTs at around July/August of 2026.
Conclusion
This cycle - like all - is a bit different. A late Altcoin season that has apparently started only this month could take another year for ALTs to peak - but it seems more likely that BTC would peak at the end of this year (like it has always done). The novelty would be that a potential second peak in summer of 2026 could favor ALTs (in the past they have always turned negative with BTC). BTC.D would, no doubt, climb heavily after that again.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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