Rise of the Few
The Alt market this cycle is different to the last ones mainly because only a select few have been able to make any significant gains. Overall, on average the Alt market has been flat for 4 years. Then, there are also coins like Hive that have continuously underperformed (except for very brief pump and dumps). If you haven't been lucky to have held some of the "select few" that have actually grown, your portfolio looks likely quite bleak. I guess the main reason for this is that we have exponentially more coins and tokens than in the last cycle. Money therefore spreads to more "stuff" and gets diluted. The interesting part now is that I don't really know how Alts will look when the bear market starts. Because how do we go 95% down from prices that are already 95% down? Should that actually happen and we don't get any sort of bull euphoria int he coming months, it's going to kill most coins/projects. Even Hive would be struggling with the debt level getting too large should Hive be worth only a couple of cents.
I have no idea if that's actually going to happen, but it does make sense overall that the crypto market simply can't sustain thousands upon thousands of projects that also compete with one another. We are already seeing many web3 games capitulating at a time when they should be striving (or at the very least not crashing).
The set up of this cycle is very similar to the last one (1-2-3), but we can see that the MC is still under the previous ATH. This is why this cycle feels so different. Moreover, there are now only a few months left for the classic end date of winter 2025 for the market to peak. Yet we can see a big potential to around 5T - which would coincide with the late stage of a bull market.
Conclusion
Since March 2025 the market has at least been in an upturn. Should the market rise a bit more, I am quite confident that we will see some sort of a parabolic move overall. Will it go to around 5T? If so, it would trigger a sell event and not selling here would be unwise. But we can already see that it simply can't happen at the classic end date. So it would already be novel that the market would need to shift to around middle of 2026. But that still seems more likely than a downturn overall which would be catastrophic for investors (but not necessarily bad for crypto in the grand scheme).
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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